Collaborative Research: Dynamic simulation approaches to consequential life cycle assessment to evaluate recycling and substitution in metal and paper-derived products

1605050(奥利维蒂)/1602916(海滩)生命周期评估是一种对产品、流程和服务的环境影响进行建模的工具。相应的生命周期评估(CLCA)侧重于利益相关者决策导致的变化如何影响研究市场以及其他市场。当前的建模方法要么在范围上受到太多限制，要么在概念上太具挑战性，将它们的适用性限制在系统的一小部分。该项目的目的是制定《CLCA》的一般方法和质量方面，重点是加强利益攸关方的互动。该方法将应用于纸/纸板和铝系统，重点关注初级材料和可回收材料以及替代材料的不同市场的存在如何影响政策。这项研究将提供一个总体框架，以扩大CLCA可以有效应用的案例数量。在研究小组先前评估材料市场和土地利用影响的基础上，这将通过：1)通过结合实证分析、计量经济学和物质流建模来量化供应的经济和反应特征；2)通过对关键部门的效用函数和决策过程的定量描述来量化需求的经济和反应特征；以及3)展示与参数生命周期库存相结合的供需相互作用的模拟。该项目将在内生反馈模拟平台中开发一个环境、物理和经济相结合的模型。回收政策领域由一系列不同的利益攸关方组成，这项工作将调查如何有效地使用物质流图等沟通工具，使政策模型更加透明和互动。作者假设，在融合一系列领域的方法学发展方面，可以锻造出强大的智力贡献，这些领域模拟了复杂材料系统中变化的后果，包括材料可用性评估和生命周期评价。补贴和税收等政策措施经常被用来促进材料回收或替代环境性能明显改善的材料。决策者面临的问题是，在立法资源有限的情况下，如何引导政策产生最大的积极影响。目前的分析工具评估当地回收的直接影响，即对特定材料、产品和地区的影响。本文描述的方法将为寻求在全球范围内评估影响的行业和政策制定者提供信息，即最大化(和优化)许多材料、产品和地区的回收效益。例如，这将有助于联邦或州一级的政策制定者了解一项政策的净影响和变化后的新基线。虽然CLCA目前被用来为美国的生物燃料政策提供信息，但它可能可以扩展到为改善材料可持续性的立法提供信息。CLCA方法有可能回答这样的问题：在有和没有拟议的材料回收和替代政策的情况下，未来的情景会是什么样子？哪些产品应该回收利用、填埋并用来生产能源？这项政策对其他经济领域有何具体影响？就纸张系统而言，利益攸关方表示，迫切需要一种工具来补充他们目前用来评估再生纸环境影响的工具(目前的工具是基于归属的生命周期评价)。从模型开发的初始阶段到结果，与广泛的利益攸关方进行沟通的可能性尤其令人兴奋。因此，预计我们的最终模型将立即用作纸浆和造纸行业环境政策的决策支持工具。

1605050 (Olivetti)/ 1602916 (Beach)Life cycle assessment is a tool for modeling the environmental impact of products, processes and services. Consequential life cycle assessment (cLCA) focuses on how changes, resulting from a stakeholder decision, impact the market of study as well as other markets. Current modeling approaches are either too restricted in scope or too conceptually challenging, limiting their applicability to a small subset of systems. The aims of this project are to develop the general methodology and develop the qualitative aspect of cLCA with a focus on enhanced stakeholder interaction. The methodology will be applied to the paper/paperboard and aluminum systems with a focus on how the presence of separate markets for primary and recycled material, as well as substitute materials, influences policy.This research will provide a general framework to expand the number of cases to which cLCA can be effectively applied. Building upon the research team's previous work evaluating materials markets and land use impacts, this will be accomplish by: 1) quantifying the economic and response characteristics of supply through a combination of empirical analysis, econometrics, and material flow modeling 2) quantifying the economic and response characteristics of demand through quantitative description of the utility function and decision processes of key sectors, and 3) demonstrating a simulation of supply-demand interaction coupled with parametric life cycle inventories. This project will develop a combined environmental, physical, and economic model in an endogenous feedback simulation platform. The recycling policy arena consists of a diverse set of stakeholders and this work will investigate how effective use of communication tools, such as material flow diagrams, can make policy models both more transparent and more interactive. The authors hypothesize that strong intellectual contributions can be forged in melding methodological developments across the set of fields that model consequences of change in complex materials systems, including materials availability assessment and LCA. Policy measures such as subsidies and taxes are often used to promote materials recycling or substitution to materials with perceived improved environmental performance. The problem faced by decision makers is how to direct policy to have the greatest positive impact given limited legislative resources. Current analysis tools evaluate the direct impact of recycling locally, i.e. for a specific material, product and region. The methods described herein will inform industry and policy makers seeking to evaluate the impact globally, i.e. maximize (and optimize) the benefits of recycling over many materials, products, and regions. For example, this would be useful for policy makers at the federal or state level wanting to understand the net impact of a policy and the new baseline following change. While cLCA is currently used to inform the US policy for biofuels, it may be extendible to inform legislation towards improved materials sustainability. The cLCA approach has the potential to answer questions such as: What would future scenarios look like with and without proposed policies in materials recycling and substitution? Which products should be recycled, landfilled, and used to produce energy? What are the specific implications of policy for other parts of the economy? In the case of the paper system, stakeholders have expressed a strong need for a tool that is supplemental to the ones they currently use to assess environmental impact of recycled paper (current tools are based on attributional LCA). Excitement has been particularly strong for the possibility to communicate with a broad set of stakeholders from the initial stages of model development and all the way to the results. It is therefore expect that our final model will find immediate use as decision-support tool for environmental policy in the pulp and paper industry.