CNH-L: The Dynamics of Adaptation to Climate-Driven Variability in California Current Fisheries And Fishing Communities

在大型海洋生态系统中工作的渔民的生计受到生物和海洋系统固有的可变性以及经济和管理结构固有的不确定性的严重影响。然而，由于渔民通过跨渔场迁移来适应这些变化，他们的行为可能会对他们自己及其社区产生强烈影响，并影响当地生态系统的动态。对海洋生态系统中环境变异性与生态、经济和社会结果之间的联系了解甚少。发展这方面的知识非常重要，以便监管机构可以采取渔业管理方法，使渔民能够适应环境变化，同时提高渔业的社会和经济价值，减轻生态系统和生计面临的风险。在这个项目中，生态学家、经济学家和社会科学家将合作并整合初级调查研究、建模和外展，以：1)了解环境变化如何影响和受相关社会和生态过程的影响；2)研究更综合的渔业管理如何增强社会和生态恢复力；3)让州和联邦渔业管理者和渔业社区参与建模方法的开发和应用，以更好地实现生态和社会目标。为了更好地实施基于生态系统的渔业管理，研究人员将使用时间序列方法来确定环境变化对鱼类种群动态和空间分布的影响，并确定在美国西海岸加利福尼亚海流海洋生态系统渔业的背景下，生产力同步或不同步变化的物种的“组合”。为了更好地了解渔民在多个渔场的参与模式，本研究将结合来自民族志访谈和渔民结构化调查的数据，以及有关捕鱼参与、收入和成本的数据，开发一个渔业供应行为的实证模型，该模型将经济动机（如利润、金融风险和外部就业机会）与非货币考虑(如：从钓鱼中获得的心理满足或与捕鱼社区的牢固社会联系)。最后，研究人员将渔业供给模型与环境变化下主要鱼类种群动态模型相结合，建立西海岸渔业生态经济耦合模拟模型。该模型将由研究人员与渔业管理者和利益相关者一起使用，以考虑替代管理方法如何通过影响渔民的适应行为来增强或阻碍渔业的恢复力。这项研究将通过提供一个重要的工具来实施基于生态系统的渔业管理，从而为社会带来效益，这是州和联邦机构的优先事项。

The livelihoods of fishermen who work in large marine ecosystems are heavily influenced by the variability inherent in biological and oceanic systems, as well as by the intrinsic uncertainty of economic and management structures. However, as fishermen adapt to these changes by moving across fisheries, their actions may strongly impact them and their communities, as well as influence local ecosystem dynamics. The linkages between environmental variability and ecological, economic, and social outcomes in marine ecosystems are poorly understood. Developing this knowledge is important so that regulators may adopt fisheries management approaches that allow fishermen to adapt to environmental variability while at the same time enhancing the social and economic value of fisheries and mitigating risks to both ecosystems and livelihoods. In this project, ecologists, economists and social scientists will collaborate and integrate primary survey research, modeling, and outreach to: 1) understand how environmental variability affects, and is affected by, linked social and ecological processes; 2) investigate how more integrated fisheries management can enhance social and ecological resilience; and 3) engage state and federal fisheries managers and fishing communities in the development and application of modeling approaches to better achieve ecological and social goals.To better operationalize ecosystem-based fisheries management, the researchers will use time series approaches to identify the effects of environmental variability on fish population dynamics and spatial distributions, and to identify 'portfolios' of species whose productivity varies synchronously or asynchronously, in the context of the fisheries of the California Current marine ecosystem on the U.S. West Coast. To better understand fishermen's patterns of participation across multiple fisheries, this research will combine data from ethnographic interviews and structured surveys of fishermen, with data on fishing participation, revenues and costs, to develop an empirical model of fishing supply behavior that integrates economic motivations (e.g., profits, financial risks, and outside employment opportunities) with non-monetary considerations (e.g., psychological satisfaction from fishing or strong social ties to the fishing community). Finally, the researchers will integrate the model of fishing supply with models of the population dynamics of key fish stocks under environmental variability to create a coupled ecological-economic simulation model of West Coast fisheries. This model will be used by the researchers, in conjunction with fishery managers and stakeholders, to consider how alternative management approaches may enhance or hamper the resilience of the fishery by affecting fishermen's adaptive behavior. The research from this study would provide society benefits through providing an important tool to operationalize ecosystem-based fishery management, a stated priority for state and federal agencies.