AGS-PRF: Improving Space Weather and Space Climate Predictions by Investigating and Modeling Surface Flux Transport on the Sun

这个为期两年的研究生奖学金研究项目的目标是提高空间气候和空间天气模型的预报能力。太阳风暴是太空天气的一个组成部分，有可能对太空中的卫星、电网和人类造成重大损害。从太阳表面对这些喷发的预测还处于起步阶段，这个项目极大地改善了预测模型的基础。目标是提高对太阳表面流动的理解，这些流动与磁场的相互作用，以及流动如何与磁场结合影响太阳的11年周期及其发电机。一个非常重要的任务项目是绘制迄今为止最精确的太阳表面（光球层）磁场全图。这是非常及时的，因为该模型及其结果将立即对预报员有用，例如NOAA/SWPC（国家海洋和大气管理局空间天气预报中心）的预报员。该项目的主要研究者是一位来自未被充分代表的少数民族的早期职业科学家，他将与本科生（REU）学生一起开展工作。该项目基于平流通量输运（AFT）模型，该模型由PI和她在国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的合作者开发。这是一个利用近地表流的观测数据对太阳磁通量进行平流的地表通量输运模型。它还可以吸收磁图数据，以增加真实感。该项目的一些既定目标是促进AFT作为跨学科的桥梁，并提高该模型的空间天气和气候预报能力。这将在一定程度上通过提供同步地图作为磁源数据，与发电机模型连接以连接内部动力学，研究活跃区域源属性，结合复杂的远端活跃区域出现以及研究更复杂的数据同化技术来实现。实现这些目标将有助于提供再现一系列周期振幅和变化所需的知识，可能包括从蒙德型大极小期恢复，并提高我们对地表动力学在调节太阳活动周期中的作用的理解，这将扩展通量输送模型的预测能力。

The goal of this two-year postgraduate fellowship research project is to improve the forecasting capabilities of space climate and space weather models. Solar storms, which are one component of space weather, have the potential to do significant damage to satellites, power grids, and humans in space. Prediction of these eruptions from the solar surface is in its infancy and this project vastly improve the basis of the predictive models. The goals are to improve understanding of the flows on the Sun's surface, the interaction of these flows with the magnetic field, and how the flows combine with the magnetic field to impact the Sun's eleven year cycle and its dynamo. One very important task project is to produce the most accurate full-Sun maps of the magnetic field on the surface (the photosphere) to date. This is very timely as this model and its resulting products will be immediately useful to forecasters such as those at NOAA/SWPC (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations Space Weather Prediction Center). The Principle Investigator of this project is an early career scientist from an underrepresented minority who will work with undergraduate (REU) students to carry out the work.This project is based on the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, developed by the PI and her collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This is a surface flux transport model that advects the magnetic flux on the sun using observational data for of near-surface flows. It can also assimilate magnetogram data for increased realism. Some of the stated goals of this project are to promote AFT as a cross discipline bridge, and to improve the space weather and climate forecasting capabilities of the model. This will be done, in part, by providing synchronic maps as magnetic source data, interfacing with dynamo models to connect with internal dynamics, investigating active region source properties, incorporating complex far-side active region emergence and investigate ever more sophisticated data assimilation techniques. Accomplishing these goals will help provide the knowledge needed to reproduce a range of cycle amplitudes and variations, potentially including the recovery from a Maunder-type Grand minimum and improve our understanding of the role of surface dynamics in modulating the solar activity cycle which will extend the predictive capability of flux transport models.