NSFOCE-BSF: The effects of fine-scale temperature and desiccation variability on the distribution of marine species

这项研究将探索小规模温度避难所的潜在重要性，这种避难所可能使潮间带生物在极端天气条件下生存下来，并随后重新繁衍周围的栖息地。遮荫的微生境--在很大程度上由海岸线的地质地形决定--有可能减少热和干燥压力，并缓冲气候条件变化的社区，包括气温上升和沿海风型变化。该项目将研究这些微生境条件的变化将如何影响地球上变化最快的两个沿海地区的生态系统的稳定性和持久性：美国的缅因湾南部和地中海盆地东南部的以色列海岸。研究人员将确定在极端气候事件期间更容易(或更不容易)受到物种死亡影响的沿海地区的特征，方法是：(1)使用激光扫描和无人机绘制精细的沿海地形；(2)在多个空间和时间尺度上量化物理环境中的温度变化；(3)测量关键生物的生理脆弱性；(4)开发数学模型，以调查不同规模的沿海生态系统的动态、生境配置、物种相互作用和不同气候制度下地点之间的连通性水平。了解具有生态和经济重要性的沿海生态系统对各种极端天气事件的脆弱性和复原力，对于作出知情的环境管理决策至关重要。研究成果将被纳入为国际受众创建的各种教育媒体，包括通过两国高中生合作共同制作的动画短片和身临其境的虚拟旅游。一个常见但基本上未经检验的假设是，环境变化作用的相关时间和空间尺度与正在研究的生物过程的尺度相当。因此，例如，物种分布的纬度模式通常与温度的纬度梯度相关，这些相关性被用来预测未来对气候变化的反应。有两条证据有力地表明，这种假设是有问题的，特别是在沿海地区。首先，当地司机的影响可能会压倒环境因素中更大尺度梯度的重要性，创造出复杂的马赛克，在这种马赛克中，米级的变异性可能超过数千公里的观测结果。其次，罕见但极端的事件可能会对持续数年或数十年的物种分布(从而影响生态系统的稳定性和功能)产生影响；这些极端事件的空间模式往往与“正常”情况有很大不同。因此，在气候变化下，观察到的物种分布的空间格局很可能反映了极端事件期间避难所的分布，以及在恢复期间避难所作为周围地点的救援地点的能力。该提案将结合环境测绘(地面激光扫描、无人机摄影)、热工程(有限元模型)、生理实验和集合种群/集合群落模型来探索细微尺度(1M)环境变化如何导致紧急特性，从而影响更大尺度(10-1000公里)的生态和生物地理格局。岩石潮间带将被用作一个模型系统，在那里，退潮期间热应力和干燥应力的空间和时间模式都非常高。该项目将在两个面临地球上一些最快的环境和生物变化速度的地点进行：缅因州南部海湾和地中海东部。这项提议将促进美国和以色列两个海洋实验室的教育推广项目之间的合作，并利用两个组织开发的优势来产生一种综合方法，创造一个跨越两国的学习环境。第一个目标是使用虚拟旅游技术来加强K-12学生的动手学习。这些虚拟的“调色板”可以填充照片、视频、数据和野外拍摄的自然历史观察。通过一系列研讨会，来自两国的学生将利用这些虚拟旅游相互教授他们的野外经验和当地栖息地。其次，研究人员将制作简短的动画教育视频，突出该项目的主要问题、方法和发现。

This study will explore the potential importance of small-scale temperature refugia that may allow intertidal organisms to survive extreme weather conditions and subsequently repopulate surrounding habitats. Shaded microhabitats - determined in large part by the geological topography of a shoreline - have the potential to reduce thermal and desiccation stress and buffer communities from shifting climatic conditions including increases in air temperature and varying coastal wind patterns. This project will examine how variation in these microhabitat conditions will impact the stability and persistence of ecosystems in two of the fastest-changing coastal regions on Earth: the southern Gulf of Maine in the U.S. and the coast of Israel in the southeastern Mediterranean basin. The researchers will identify features of coastal areas that are more (or less) susceptible to species mortality during extreme climatic events by (1) mapping fine-scale coastal topography using laser scanning and drones; (2) quantifying temperature variation in the physical environment at multiple spatial and temporal scales; (3) measuring the physiological vulnerability of key organisms; and (4) developing mathematical models to investigate the dynamics of the coastal ecosystem at different scales, habitat configurations, species interactions, and levels of connectivity among sites under different climate regimes. Understanding the vulnerability and resiliency of ecologically and economically important coastal ecosystems to a variety of extreme weather events is critical to making well-informed environmental management decisions. Research findings will be incorporated into a variety of educational media created for an international audience, including short animated videos and immersive virtual tours co-produced via collaboration of high school students in both countries. A common yet largely untested assumption is that the relevant temporal and spatial scales over which environmental variation operates are comparable to the scales of the biological process being studied. Thus, for example, latitudinal patterns of species distributions are commonly correlated against latitudinal gradients in temperature, and these correlations are used to inform forecasts of future responses to climate change. Two lines of evidence strongly suggest that such assumptions are problematic, especially in coastal zones. First, the influence of local drivers can overwhelm the importance of larger-scale gradients in environmental factors, creating complex mosaics where variability at the scale of meters can exceed that observed over thousands of km. Second, rare but extreme events can have effects on the distributions of species (and thus the stability and function of ecosystems) that last for years or decades; often spatial patterns in these extreme events differ substantially from those of "normal" conditions. Increasingly under climate change, observed spatial patterning in species distributions are thus likely a reflection of the distribution of refugia during extreme events, and the ability of refugia to serve as rescue sites to surrounding locations during periods of recovery. This proposal will use a combination of environmental mapping (terrestrial laser scanning, drone photography), thermal engineering (finite element models), physiological experimentation, and metapopulation/metacommunity modeling to explore how fine-scale (1m) environmental variation may result in emergent properties that influence much larger-scale (10-1000 km) ecological and biogeographic patterns. The rocky intertidal zone, where spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and desiccation stresses during low tide are exceedingly high, will be used as a model system. The project will take place in two locations facing some of the fastest rates of environmental and biotic change on the planet: the southern Gulf of Maine and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. This proposal will facilitate collaborations between educational outreach programs at two marine labs in the U.S. and Israel, and leverages strengths developed by both groups to produce an integrated approach that will create a learning environment that spans both countries. The first goal is to use virtual tour technology to enhance hands-on learning by K-12 students. These virtual "palettes" can be populated with photos, video, data, and natural history observations taken in the field. Through a series of workshops, students from the two countries will use these virtual tours to teach each other about their field experiences and local habitats. Second, the researchers will develop short, animated, educational videos highlighting the project's major questions, approaches, and findings.