CRISP Type 2: Integrative Decision Making Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures

基础设施的可靠运行对国家安全至关重要，对社会、经济和环境福祉至关重要。这个CRISP项目将促进我们对不同类型的相互依赖性对关键基础设施（CI）弹性的影响的理解，针对水，交通和网络基础设施。该项目不是关注不同的基础设施，而是关注不同的相互依赖性，包括基于物理（主要是协同定位），基于虚拟（主要是信息）和基于社会经济（主要是资源管理）。该项目将加强相互依存的重要基础设施的复原力，并通过为评价设计、业务和组织战略而制定的综合决策框架，改变基础设施管理。综合研究和教育提供了一个有趣的自学环境，并通过互动网站主办的竞争为基础的学习游戏广泛传播项目的研究成果和产品。该项目的目标是：1）开发和验证考虑基于物理和基于虚拟的相互依赖性的模型，并检查与设计策略相关的基础设施弹性; 2）开发考虑基于社会经济的相互依赖性的综合数学模型，并检查基础设施运营策略; 3）了解管理关键基础设施的影响因素和组织策略; 4）为高级别利益相关者开发多方法自适应模拟器，以识别/量化故障影响和解决故障的潜在策略; 5）开发弹性结构学习游戏（RILG），供公众参与和传播，以建立认识，知识和能力，以识别关键基础设施之间的相互依赖性。该框架采用了混合系统动力学和基于代理的建模方法来整合不同方法的结果，包括：（重点：CI的设计方面）;基础设施预测和健康管理，同时考虑到物理，虚拟，以及基础设施之间基于社会经济的相互依赖性，同时考虑性能指标的持续下降和关键事件的离散发生（重点：CI的操作方面）;决策结果的共识分析和蒙特卡罗模拟（重点：CI的组织方面）。备选基础设施设计、运营和组织战略将借鉴使用调查和访谈进行的模型和组织复原力研究。将开发一个模拟策略类游戏平台，让不同的学生和从业者团队通过权衡相关的交易成本来评估他们制定的策略。

The reliable functioning of infrastructures is critical to national security and fundamental to social, economic, and environmental well-being. This CRISP project will advance our understanding of the effects of different types of interdependencies on the resiliency of critical infrastructures (CIs), targeting water, transportation and cyber infrastructures. Instead of focusing on different infrastructures, this project focuses on different interdependencies including physical-based (primarily co-location), virtual-based (primarily information), and socioeconomic-based (primarily resource management). The project will enhance the resiliency of interdependent critical infrastructures and transform infrastructure management by the integrative decision framework developed for the evaluation of design, operational and organizational strategies. The integrated research and education provides a fun self-learning environment and wide dissemination of project findings and products through the interactive website hosting the competition-based learning game. The objectives of this project are to: 1) develop and validate models considering physical-based and virtual-based interdependencies and examine the infrastructure resiliency associated with design strategies; 2) develop an integrated mathematical model considering socioeconomic-based interdependencies and examine the infrastructure operational strategies; 3) understand influential factors and organizational strategies in managing critical infrastructures; 4) develop a multi-method adaptive simulator for high-level stakeholders to identify/quantify the failure impacts and potential strategies for addressing failures; and 5) develop a Resilient Infrastructures Learning Game (RILG) for public participation and dissemination to build awareness, knowledge, and capacity for recognizing interdependencies among critical infrastructures. The projected framework uses a hybrid system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach to integrate outcomes from different methods including: multi-layer network modeling (focus: design aspects of CIs); infrastructure prognostic and health management taking into account the physical, virtual, and socioeconomic-based interdependencies among infrastructures and considering both continuous degradation of performance measures and the discrete occurrence of critical events (focus: operational aspects of CIs); and consensus analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of decision making outcomes (focus: organizational aspects of CIs). The alternative infrastructure design, operational and organizational strategies will draw from the models and organizational resiliency studies using surveys and interviews. A simulation game platform will be developed to allow different teams of students and practitioners to evaluate their developed strategies by weighing associated transaction costs.