Towards a Unifying Pan-Arctic Perspective: Concepts and Theories

概述：这笔赠款将支持一个国际科学家小组，包括来自美国的大量科学家，开发一个北冰洋功能的共享，高层次的概念模型，综合我们对北极海洋生态系统对当前压力和变化的反应的关键过程和要素的理解。为北冰洋开发一个统一的泛北极概念模型，其中可能包括针对具体区域和进程的一系列嵌套的额外模型，将有助于在变化时期更好地协调针对北冰洋的研究工作。更广泛的影响：北冰洋是一个和平和建设性的政治和经济合作区域，可以通过基于科学的知识共享和统一概念来改善。该研讨会的成果将在两份出版物中报告：（1）北冰洋概念模型的扩展修订版;（2）将在研讨会上开发的统一概念模型的精简版，其中将确定制约北冰洋生态系统对变化的反应的关键过程和杠杆。该研讨会将在美国担任国际北极理事会主席期间举行，其产品将开发，以覆盖广泛的研究界，包括国内和国际的研究人员和研究管理人员。知识专长：北极进程的概念化必须侧重于泛北极海洋环境，但也包括整个海洋-陆地-大气系统。许多国家，包括北极和非北极国家，正在制定重大研究计划，旨在促进我们在变化时期对北冰洋系统的理解，作为管理北极工业活动预测增加所带来的迫在眉睫的压力的先决条件。 然而，这些计划，涉及巨大的努力和资源，在很大程度上缺乏一个共享的范式，或理解，以帮助确定这些计划应该解决的关键过程。这些研究项目存在着缺乏重点和成果的风险，也存在着无法实现相互协同的风险。因此，虽然每一项努力都可能具有科学相关性和合理性，但总体而言，它们可能无法提供所需的高水平理解，使我们在管理未来北极经济增长和工业运营的影响方面处于边缘地位。这项工作旨在通过提供帮助指导北极科学规划所需的高层次思维来解决这一问题。

Overview:This grant is to support an international group of scientists, including a significant number from the US, to develop a shared, high-level conceptual model of the functioning of the Arctic Ocean that synthesizes our understanding of the key processes and elements governing the responses of the Arctic marine ecosystems to current pressures and changes. The development of a unified pan arctic conceptual model for the Arctic Ocean, which may include a nested array of additional models addressing specific regions and processes, will be enable improved coordination of research efforts addressing the Arctic Ocean in a time of change. Broader Impacts:The Arctic Ocean is a region of peaceful and constructive political and economic cooperation, which can be improved through science-based knowledge sharing and unifying concepts. The outcome of this workshop will be reported in two publications: (1) an extended revision of conceptual models of the Arctic Ocean, and (2) a compact and distilled version of the unified conceptual model to be developed at the workshop identifying the key processes and levers governing the response of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem to change. The workshop will be held and its products developed during the period of the US Chairmanship of the international Arctic Council, to reach a broad research community, including researchers and research managers nationally and internationally. Intellectual Merit:Addressing the conceptualization of Arctic processes must focus on the pan arctic marine environment but encompass the full marine - land - atmosphere system. Many nations, both Arctic and non-Arctic, are elaborating major research programs aimed at advancing our understanding of the Arctic Ocean system in a time of change, as a pre-requisite to managing the imminent pressures derived from the forecasted increase in industry operations in the Arctic. However, these programs, involving great efforts and resources, are largely lacking a shared paradigm, or understanding to help identify the key processes that such programs should aim to resolve. There is a risk that these research programs will suffer from a lack of focus and their outcomes, as well as fail to achieve synergy with one another. As a result, while each effort may be scientifically relevant and sound, collectively they may fall short of providing the high level understanding required, leaving us in a marginal position to manage the impacts of economic growth and industry operations in the future Arctic. This effort aims to address that by providing the high level thinking needed to help guide scientific planning in the Arctic.