Doctoral Dissertation Research: Coup-Proofing Democracy

阿拉伯之春之后，埃及和突尼斯都试图向民主过渡。埃及的过渡在一场军事政变中迅速崩溃，而突尼斯仍在巩固民主的道路上。为什么?更普遍的问题是，为什么有些民主转型沦为军事政变，而另一些却没有？虽然现有文献关注的是通过经济衰退和政治两极分化创造的政变机会，但本文反而强调了军方抓住这一机会的意愿。这个项目研究了在民主之前，军队在政权中是如何被对待的，这将决定它从民主中是得失，从而决定它是发动政变还是支持过渡。通过对埃及和突尼斯的案例研究、对军官的调查实验和对所有民主转型的统计分析，这种方法得到了检验。为什么一些军队发动政变反对新生的民主国家，而另一些却没有？本项目认为，军方阻挠或接受民主过渡的决定是由其前独裁者的防政变战略决定的。当军队在历史上通过分享权力或共同身份被独裁者收纳时，他们更有可能阻碍民主化，从而失去在民主制度下的特权地位。相比之下，当军队在历史上被独裁者边缘化、分裂和制衡时，他们应该更支持民主化，从而从民主中获益。本项目通过对埃及和突尼斯的案例研究，借鉴了近100次访谈和对军官的调查实验来检验这一理论。然后，通过对1783年至2016年间所有民主转型的跨国分析，探讨了这一理论的普遍性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

After the Arab Spring, both Egypt and Tunisia attempted to transition to democracy. Egypt's transition quickly collapsed in a military coup, while Tunisia remains on the path to democratic consolidation. Why? More generally, why do some democratic transitions fall to military coups, while others do not? While existing literature focuses on the opportunity for a coup that is created through economic recessions and political polarization, this dissertation instead highlights the military's will to seize that opportunity. This project examines how the military was treated in the regime prior to democracy will shape whether it gains or loses from democracy, and thus whether it stages a coup or supports the transition. This approach is tested through case studies of Egypt and Tunisia, a survey experiment of military officers, and a statistical analysis of all democratic transitions. Why do some militaries stage coups against nascent democracies while others do not? This project argues that the military's decision to thwart or accept a democratic transition is shaped by its former autocrat's coup-proofing strategy. Militaries are more likely to obstruct democratization when they had historically been coopted by their autocrats through a share of power or shared identity, and thus lose their privileged positions under democracy. By contrast, militaries should be more supportive of democratization when they had historically been marginalized, fragmented, and counterbalanced by their autocrats, and thus gain from democracy. This project examines this theory through case studies of Egypt and Tunisia, drawing upon nearly 100 interviews and a survey experiment of military officers. It then probes the generalizability of the theory through a cross-national analysis of all democratic transitions between 1783-2016.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.