What are the environmental causes of population variability of highly mobile animals

动物的丰度每年都有变化，有时变化很大，这些变化通常归因于天气模式的差异。然而，人们往往很难理解降雨和温度的季节性变化影响生物体的繁殖、生存和运动模式的许多方式。本研究利用草原鸟类来了解天气模式对种群的直接和间接影响，通过它们对植被，食物供应和捕食者的影响。通过关注候鸟，这项工作探讨了天气模式对当地和大陆规模的种群的影响。通过开发新的统计工具来处理多种类型的数据，该项目将产生对预测人口下降至关重要的见解，并将提供可用于其他系统的模板。由于北美96%的高草草原已经被改造，该项目的发现和影响将用于促进大平原生态系统的长期健康。该项目将对学生进行统计和生物学方法的交叉培训，吸引当地牧民参与，并通过公共宣传机会促进对草原生态系统的认识。 本研究将通过将详细的人口研究与综合人口建模框架中的长期社区数据相结合，确定高度移动的动物种群波动的关键气候驱动因素。本研究将通过确定几种鸟类对天气的直接生理反应来测试当地繁殖季节丰度的多个替代驱动因素的预测，包括蚱蜢麻雀，Dickcissels和Eastern Meadowlark，并通过研究降雨，火灾和放牧对这些种群的植物，猎物和捕食者社区之间的相互作用。该项目通过使用羽毛中的稳定同位素和地理定位仪数据来研究非繁殖区的气候与随后几年的繁殖丰度之间的联系，探讨规模问题。最后，本研究开发了整合不同数据集并在多个尺度上协调气候-人口联系所需的尖端统计方法。这项工作将通过堪萨斯州Konza Prairie的长期生态研究计划收集四十年的数据，并以此为基础。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

The abundances of animals vary from year to year, sometimes quite dramatically, and these changes are often attributed to differences in weather patterns. However, it is often difficult to understand the many ways that seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature influence the reproduction, survival and movement patterns of organisms. This study uses grassland birds to understand the effect of weather patterns on populations directly and indirectly, through their effects on vegetation, food availability and predators. By focusing on migratory birds, this work explores the effects of weather pattern on populations at both the local and continental scale. Through the development of novel statistical tools to process multiple types of data, the project will generate insights critical to forecasting population declines and will provide a template that can be used in other systems. Because 96% of North America's tallgrass prairies have been converted, the project's findings and implications will be used to promote the long-term health of Great Plains ecosystems. This project will cross-train students in statistical and biological methods, engage local stake-holders and promote the appreciation of grassland ecosystems though public outreach opportunities. This study will identify the key climatic drivers of population fluctuations in highly mobile animals by combining detailed, population studies with long-term community data in an integrative population modeling framework. This study will test predictions of multiple alternative drivers of local breeding-season abundance by identifying the direct physiological responses to weather by several bird species, including the Grasshopper Sparrows, Dickcissels, and Eastern Meadowlarks, and by examining the interactions between rainfall, fire, and grazing on plant, prey, and predator communities on these populations. This project explores the issue of scale, by using stable isotopes in feathers and geolocator data to examine the links between climate in non-breeding areas and breeding abundance in subsequent years. Finally, this study develops cutting-edge statistical methods that are needed to integrate disparate datasets and reconcile climate-population linkages at multiple scales. This work will be informed by and build upon four decades of data collected through the Long-Term Ecological Research program at Konza Prairie, Kansas.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.