RUI: Comparing Age Selectivity in Modern Extinctions and the Fossil Record

地球可能正在进入一场现代灭绝，与地质历史上已知的大规模灭绝不相上下。似乎许多长寿的族群正受到威胁，甚至那些存活了数百万年的族群也是如此。这与之前对化石记录的研究结果形成了鲜明对比，后者表明，年龄较大的物种灭绝的可能性通常较小。这种模式的唯一例外是在大灭绝时期。该项目将比较现代和古代的物种灭绝，以更好地了解物种灭绝的风险和对当前生物多样性的威胁。该项目还将为本科生提供研究经验，并为服务不足的中学生提供推广计划。之前的研究已经将现代生物多样性丧失的程度或速度与古代大灭绝进行了比较。为了提高我们对现代物种灭绝的理解，这个项目将比较现代物种和化石物种与物种年龄之间的物种灭绝选择性。将使用IUCN现代类红色名录和化石类古生物学数据库在通用级别上评估物种灭绝风险。现代属和化石属的年龄都将从古生物学数据库中确定。灭绝风险和属年龄之间的关系将被量化，并为将现代灭绝与化石记录中的灭绝进行比较提供基础。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Earth may be entering a modern extinction, on par with mass extinctions known from the geologic past. It appears that many long-lived groups are becoming threatened, even ones that have survived for millions of years. This is in contrast to the findings of previous studies of the fossil record, which have shown that older groups were generally less likely to go extinct. The only exception to this pattern is during periods of mass extinction. This project will compare modern and ancient extinctions to better understand extinction risk and threats to current biodiversity. The project also will provide research experience for undergraduate students and contribute to an outreach program for underserved middle school students.Previous studies have compared the magnitude or rate of modern biodiversity loss with those of ancient mass extinctions. To improve our understanding of modern extinctions, this project will compare extinction selectivity with respect to genus age in modern and fossil classes. Extinction risk will be assessed at the generic level using the IUCN Red List for modern classes, and using the Paleobiology Database for fossil classes. Ages of both modern and fossil genera will be determined from the Paleobiology Database. The relationship between extinction risk and genus age will be quantified and provide a basis for comparing modern extinctions with those in the fossil record.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.