Collaborative Research: A Teleconnection between the Tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Warm Climates

冬季北方平流层的风在北极上空形成了一个围绕冷低压环流的涡旋。偶尔，也许十年中有六次，涡旋会经历一次被称为平流层突然变暖（SSW）的重大破坏，其中北极平流层在短短几天内变暖数十度。 SSW通常伴随着冷空气爆发和其他形式的恶劣天气，因此它们具有实际和科学意义。SSW的经典研究表明，涡旋的破裂是由向上和向北传播到极地平流层的行星尺度波引起的。 这些波可以以各种方式起源，PI和其他人之前的工作发现一些SSW可以与热带马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）联系起来。 MJO是一个由云量和对流性降雨组成的大范围包络，形成于赤道印度洋上空，并缓慢向东传播，远至中太平洋。 已知MJO产生的行星波会影响中高纬度地区的天气，但它们对SSW的影响直到最近才受到重视。最近的研究表明，当热带海表温度（SST）升高时，MJO活动会增加，因此MJO与SSW的联系特别令人感兴趣。MJO活动的增加表明更大的SSW频率，但其他因素，如在变暖的气候急流的变化也必须考虑。本项目研究的MJO SSW连接在不同程度的复杂性的模式层次。这项研究是由一个专门的模型配置，能够模拟MJO，这是众所周知的难以捕捉在当前的天气和气候模型，和SSW。 该模式使用超参数化（SP），这是一种由一个PI开创的技术，其中云解析模型嵌入全球模型的每个网格列（见AGS-0425247）。 SP技术应用于共同体大气模式（CAM，共同体地球系统模式的大气成分模式），在这里使用增强的垂直分辨率，以捕捉平流层动力学。由于SSW对北方地面天气的影响，这项工作具有更广泛的影响。热带SST的变暖提高了更强的MJO事件的前景，了解更强的事件将如何影响美国和其他国家的天气状况具有实际意义。 此外，MJO的缓慢传播为与SSW相关的极端天气的扩展预测提供了一些希望，因此对MJO-SSW连接的研究对业务天气预报有影响。 该项目通过支持本科生和当地高中生的暑期实习产生了更广泛的教育影响，他们接受了Python编程和大气数据分析的培训。该奖项还为两名研究生提供支持和培训，从而为该研究领域的未来劳动力提供支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The wintertime winds of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere form a vortex circulating around a cold low pressure cell over the Arctic. Occasionally, perhaps six time in a decade, the vortex experiences a major disruption known as a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW), in which the Arctic stratosphere warms by tens of degrees celsius in just a few days. SSWs are often followed by cold air outbreaks and other forms of severe weather, thus they are of practical as well as scientific interest. Classical studies of SSWs established that the breakdown of the vortex is caused by planetary-scale waves propagating upward and northward into the polar stratosphere. These waves can originate in various ways, and previous work by the PIs and others finds that some SSWs can be linked to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a broad envelope of cloudiness and convective rainfall that forms over the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward as far as the central Pacific. Planetary waves generated by the MJO are known to affect weather in middle and high latitudes but their effect on SSWs has not received much attention until recently. The MJO-SSW connection is of particular interest given recent studies suggesting that MJO activity increases when tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increase. The increase in MJO activity suggests greater SSW frequency, but other factors such as changes in the jet streams in a warming climate must also be considered.This project examines the MJO-SSW connection in a hierarchy of models of varying degrees of complexity. The research is enabled by a specialized model configuration which is capable of simulating both the MJO, which is notoriously difficult to capture in current weather and climate models, and SSWs. The model uses superparameterization (SP), a technique pioneered by one of the PIs in which cloud resolving models are embedded in every grid column of a global model (see AGS-0425247). The SP technique is applied in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, the atmospheric component model of the Community Earth System Model), used here with enhanced vertical resolution to capture stratospheric dynamics. The work has broader impacts due to the effects of SSWs on surface weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The warming of tropical SSTs raises the prospect of stronger MJO events, and it is of practical interest to understand how stronger events will affect weather regimes over the US and other countries. Moreover, the slow propagation of the MJO offers some hope for extended-range prediction of extreme weather linked to SSWs, thus research on the MJO-SSW connection has implications for operational weather forecasting. The project has educational broader impacts through summer internships supporting undergraduates and local high school students, who are trained in python programming and atmospheric data analysis. The award also provides support and training to two graduate students, thereby providing for the future workforce in this research area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.