CREST-PRF: Integrating Economics, Policy, Infrastructure and Climate in the Energy Water Nexus: A Decision Support Tool for Water Management in the Oil and Gas Industry

科学与技术卓越研究中心博士后研究奖学金（CREST- prf）项目支持具有重大潜力的CREST中心研究人员，并为他们提供培训和研究经验，以拓宽视野，促进跨学科互动，并使他们在科学界处于领导地位。这项CREST- prf研究与新墨西哥大学土木工程系CREST水与环境中心（CWE）的目标一致。石油和天然气行业最近的趋势显示出前所未有的增长，80%的全球新需求将由美国国内供应来满足。这种增长主要是由于技术的进步（水平钻井和水力压裂），使得从非常规储量中经济有效地开采石油和天然气成为可能。这种生产既需要也产生了大量的水，这两者都必须得到有效的管理，以确保生产稳定，并最大限度地减少对更广泛社区的负面影响。本研究的目的是通过考虑利益相关者（生产者、水权持有人、监管者）如何应对经济、政策、基础设施和气候（EPIC）四个因素的变化，了解未来水资源可能限制油气生产的情况。将设计一个决策支持工具来评估这些动态，并确定管理策略，以提高这些关键系统在不确定的未来条件下的弹性。这项工作将通过以整体和时间动态的方式解决水资源管理问题，弥合具体地点分析、技术评估和人类行为之间的差距。因此，它将产生关于系统如何运作的新知识，哪些机制指导利益相关者层面的决策，以及如何在未来以对生产者、监管者和其他用水者有意义的规模对水进行最佳管理。该项目将采用一种新颖的方法，将空间和大数据处理与分析、系统动力学（SD）和基于代理的建模（ABM）技术以及专家启发相结合，研究物理系统和决策驱动系统之间的反馈。这项工作将集中在二叠纪盆地（NM， TX），据估计，该盆地是全球最大的石油储量之一，但水资源有限，并以长期干旱为特征。由于该地区油气开发的快速增长，对于油气行业的水管理动态将如何随着时间的推移而变化，以及哪些因素会影响这些关系，存在着重大的知识空白。EPIC因素之间的联系将使用井位生产信息、水、气候和时间运输网络模型进行分析。专家知识将为理解与人类、利益相关者驱动的系统的相互作用提供基础，并将其纳入ABM。这些信息将提高利益相关者确定创新水管理战略的能力，从而降低风险，支持干旱能源产区的长期水需求。除了将这项研究扩展到其他耦合的能量-水系统之外，它还提供了一种方法，以更有效，空间和时间相关的方式进一步了解这些动态系统对人类健康和安全的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Centers of Research Excellence in Science and Technology-Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (CREST-PRF) track within the CREST program supports beginning CREST Center investigators with significant potential and provides them with training and research experiences that will broaden perspectives, facilitate interdisciplinary interactions and establish them in positions of leadership within the scientific community. This CREST-PRF research is aligned with the goals of CREST Center for Water and the Environment (CWE) in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of New Mexico. Recent trends in the oil and gas (O&G) industry show unprecedented growth such that 80% of new global demand will be met with domestic (US) supplies. This growth is due largely to technological advances (horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing) that allow for cost effective recovery of O&G from unconventional reserves. This production both requires and produces large volumes of water, both of which must be managed efficiently to insure production stability and minimize negative impacts on the broader community. The objective of this research is to understand the circumstances under which water may constrain O&G production in the future by considering how stakeholders (producers, water rights holders, regulators) respond to changes in four factors: Economics, Policy, Infrastructure, and Climate (EPIC). A decision support tool will be designed to evaluate these dynamics and to identify management strategies that will improve the resilience of these critical systems in uncertain future conditions. This work will bridge gaps between site specific analyses, technology assessments, and human behavior by addressing water management in a holistic and temporally dynamic manner. As a result, it will generate new knowledge regarding how the system functions, what mechanisms guide stakeholder-level decisions, and how water can be optimally managed in the future at a scale that is meaningful to producers, regulators, and other water users.This project will employ a novel approach that integrates spatial and big data processing and analysis, system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques, and expert elicitation to investigate the feedbacks between physical and decision-driven systems. This work will focus on the Permian Basin (NM, TX) which is estimated to represent one of the largest oil reserves globally but is also water limited and marked by periods of extended drought. Because of the rapid growth in O&G development in the region, significant knowledge gaps exist regarding how water management dynamics in the oil and gas industry will change over time and what factors will influence these relationships. The linkages between EPIC factors will be analyzed using well-level production information, water, climate, and temporal transportation network modeling. Expert knowledge will provide the basis for understanding interactions with human, stakeholder-driven systems and incorporated into an ABM. This information will improve the ability of stakeholders to identify innovative water management strategies that reduce risk and support long-term water needs in arid, energy producing regions. In addition to the extensibility of this research to other coupled energy-water systems, it provides a means to further understand implications of these dynamic systems on human health and safety in a more efficient, spatially and temporally relevant manner.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.