MSB-ECA: Climate change and plants on unusual soils: Detecting and modeling ecosystem response of Caribbean serpentine floras

异常粗糙的土壤（如石灰石、蛇纹石和石膏）倾向于支持独特的植物群，这些植物群富含特有的植物物种，是世界上许多植物中的一种。S生物多样性热点。与正常土壤生态系统相比，不寻常土壤生态系统对气候变化的反应是否不同？土壤类型未知。一方面，不寻常土壤植物群特有的抗逆性可能使其对气候变化具有更大的适应能力。另一方面，空间隔离和人为干扰，如栖息地破碎化，可能使不寻常的土壤生态系统更容易受到气候变化的影响。该项目将结合实地测量、遥感和气候模型来确定加勒比地区蛇形土壤如何对正在发生的和预测的气候变化作出反应。这项研究是了解热带蛇形土壤如何对气候变化做出反应的第一次全面努力，因此将极大地提高我们对这些独特生态系统的理解。这项研究产生的信息将有助于保护生物多样性和改进对世界各地其他不寻常土壤生态系统的预测。在这个项目中收集的数据将加强国家和全球数据库，促进进一步的研究。该项目将为学生和教师提供数据管理和分析技能的培训讲习班，将本研究收集的数据整合到生物学入门教学模块中，并培训四名本科生和四名研究生，从数据收集到发表研究的各个方面，从而加强劳动力和增加科学多样性。该研究将确定蛇形和非蛇形生态系统功能性状多样性与环境属性之间的尺度关系，利用卫星图像量化蛇形和非蛇形生态系统土地利用变化的历史模式和速率，并通过将土壤和功能性状整合到气候和物种分布模型中来预测生态系统功能。该项目将测量整个加勒比盆地蛇形和非蛇形生态系统中与气候耐受性和扩散能力相关的关键植物功能性状。土壤化学也将被量化，允许在广泛的空间尺度上对土壤特征进行标准化比较。气候和物种分布模型将确定对气候变化特别脆弱或有弹性的地区和物种。植被绿化率和初级生产量的年际趋势将使用陆地卫星图像数据进行分析。遥感分析将确定蛇形和非蛇形生态系统生境破碎化的程度和速率以及对降水年际变化的响应。该项目将全球生物多样性热点地区的细尺度多样性模式与大尺度生态系统变化模式相结合，并将确定不同寻常的土壤生态系统对气候变化是具有独特的适应性还是独特的脆弱性。

Soils that are unusually harsh (like limestone, serpentine, and gypsum) tend to support distinct floras that are rich in endemic plant species and are among many of the world?s biodiversity hotspots. Whether unusual soil ecosystems respond differently to climate change compared to ?normal? soil types is unknown. On the one hand, stress-tolerant plant traits typical of unusual soil flora may result in greater resilience to climate change. On the other hand, spatial isolation and anthropogenic disturbances, like habitat fragmentation, may make unusual soil ecosystems more vulnerable to climate change. This project will use a combination of field measurements, remote sensing, and climate modeling to determine how serpentine soils in the Caribbean region respond to ongoing and predicted climate change. This research represents the first comprehensive effort to understand how tropical serpentine soils respond to climate change, and consequently will vastly improve our understanding of these unique ecosystems. The information generated by this research will be useful for conserving biodiversity and for improving predictions for other unusual soil ecosystems around the world. The data collected during this project will enhance national and global databases, facilitating further research. This project will strengthen the workforce and increase diversity in science by providing training workshops for students and faculty in data management and analytical skills, integrating the data collected in this research into introductory biology teaching modules, and training four undergraduate and four graduate students in all aspects of the study from data collection to publication.The proposed research will determine scaling relationships between functional trait diversity and environmental attributes of serpentine and non-serpentine ecosystems, quantify historical patterns and rates of land-use change of serpentine and non-serpentine ecosystems using satellite imagery, and model predicted ecosystem function by integrating soil and functional traits into climate and species distribution models. This project will measure key plant functional traits related to climatic tolerances and dispersal ability in serpentine and non-serpentine ecosystems throughout the Caribbean Basin. Soil chemistry will also be quantified, allowing a standardized comparison of soil characteristics across broad spatial scales. Climate and species distribution models will identify regions and species that are particularly vulnerable or resilient to climate change. Inter-annual trends in vegetation greenness and primary production will be analyzed using Landsat imagery data. Remote sensing analyses will determine the magnitude and rate of habitat fragmentation in serpentine and non-serpentine ecosystems and responses to inter-annual variation in precipitation. This project integrates fine-scale patterns of diversity with large-scale patterns of ecosystem change in a global biodiversity hotspot and will determine whether unusual soil ecosystems are uniquely resilient or uniquely vulnerable to climate change.