CAREER: Long-term Controls on Short-term Patterns of Magmatism: Towards a Unified Framework for Crustal Magma Transport

确定源区和地球表面之间岩浆迁移的路径和时间仍然是了解火山爆发及其危害的最大挑战之一。预测火山活动必须与隐藏在地表之下的岩浆迁移过程相抗衡，这些过程反映了远远超出直接观测记录的岩浆和构造事件的综合历史。地质记录中与最大火山爆发有关的任何类型的岩浆活动从未被直接观察到，这使得理解今天活跃的火山如何适应可能的火山过程的努力变得复杂。这一建议将产生新的认识，岩浆运输规模，既相关的预测活火山过程和解释过去的喷发记录。与这一提议相关的更广泛的影响将利用火山数据的巨大多样性来开发用于教学、推广和艺术桥梁的声音化和可视化软件工具。本科教学和讲习班将产生地球科学教育材料。一系列的宣传介绍将使用声音化和可视化技术，向公众介绍项目研究，包括与音乐家合作制作声音化火山数据的录音和表演。这项建议有两个主要的科学目标。第一个目标是了解岩浆活动在其最大规模的时空进展，重点是标志性的哥伦比亚河洪水玄武岩。新的现场数据描述了一个大规模暴露的馈线岩脉系统在美国东部俄勒冈州，将结合热年代学和相关技术，限制地下岩浆流的时间尺度。数值模型将阐明物理过程控制的克里思，体积和地壳运输架构喂养洪水玄武岩喷发，使用贝叶斯反演方法正式评估模型的不确定性之间的不同，但间接的观测约束。这项工作应该提供一个预测的基础，连接洪水玄武岩喷发的环境影响，包括气候和大规模的生命灭绝。第二个目标是开发一个地壳岩浆运输的建模框架，捕获多相流体运动和表面喷发周期通过网络的水库和管道，耦合到一个地壳模型，占以前的岩浆热机械历史，远场强迫（即从构造，气候），和非线性流变学的地壳材料。这个建模框架将被用来探索的物理和化学过程中的现象学的权衡统治喷发周期，并探讨历史依赖的地壳应力和热演化的复杂性，在长寿的岩浆中心。应用于历史火山数据集以及哥伦比亚河洪水玄武岩将为模型提供观测测试，虽然与其他人进行的完全相位分辨模拟的比较和校准将有助于弥合不同的方法，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响进行评估，被认为值得支持审查标准。

Determining the pathways and timing of magma migration between the source region and Earth's surface remains one of the biggest challenges for understanding volcanic eruptions and their hazards. Predicting volcanic activity must contend with magma transport processes that are hidden beneath the surface and that reflect an integrated history of magmatic and tectonic events spanning far beyond direct observational records. Magmatism of any kind associated with the largest volcanic eruptions in the geologic record has never been directly observed, which complicates efforts to understand how volcanoes active today fit into the spectrum of possible volcanic processes. This proposal will generate new understandings of magma transport on scales that are relevant both to predicting active volcanic processes and to interpreting the record of past eruptions. Broader impacts associated with this proposal will leverage the great diversity of volcanic data to develop sonification and visualization software tools for use in teaching, outreach, and as a bridge to the arts. Undergraduate teaching and workshops will generate geoscience education materials. A series of outreach presentations will use sonification and visualization techniques to bring project research to the public, including a collaboration with musicians to produce recordings and performances of sonified volcanic data. There are two primary scientific objectives of this proposal. The first objective is to understand the spatiotemporal progression of magmatism at its largest scales, focusing on the iconic Columbia River Flood Basalts. New field data describing a massive exposed feeder dike system in eastern Oregon, USA, will be combined with thermochronology and related techniques that constrain timescales of subsurface magma flow. Numerical models will elucidate physical processes controlling the tempo, volumes, and crustal transport architecture feeding flood basalt eruptions, using Bayesian inversion methods to formally assess model uncertainty amongst diverse but indirect observational constraints. This work should provide a predictive basis for connecting flood basalt eruptions to environmental impacts including climate and mass extinctions of life. The second objective is to develop a modeling framework for crustal magma transport that captures multiphase fluid movement and surface eruption cycles through a network of reservoirs and conduits, coupled to a crustal model that accounts for the thermomechanical history of prior magmatism, far-field forcing (i.e. from tectonics, climate), and nonlinear rheology of crustal materials. This modeling framework will be used to explore the phenomenological trade-offs in physical and chemical processes that govern eruption cycles, and explore the complexities of history-dependent crustal stress and thermal evolution at long-lived magmatic centers. Applications to historical volcanic datasets as well as the Columbia River Flood Basalts will provide an observational test for models, while comparison to and calibration with fully phase-resolved simulations performed by others will help bridge divergent approaches to modeling multi-scale magma transport.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.