PREEVENTS Track 1: Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards: Bringing together Geoscientists, Computational Mathematicians, and Statisticians to Advance Hazard Forecasting

更好地预测自然灾害可以挽救生命，减轻财产损失。本次会议将讨论物理系统耦合数学模型中的不确定性问题，以及这种不确定性对灾害预测的影响。它将提供一个场所，介绍年轻的地球科学家，计算数学家和统计学家相互和高级研究人员。它将确定感兴趣的具体问题和围绕耦合危险模型的挑战的新合作。物理系统数学模型的不确定性分析仍在发展中。直到最近，不确定性的影响才被纳入灾害预测。然而，大多数危害是一系列效应的后果。例如，雨水会削弱被火烧焦的山坡上的土壤，从而导致山体滑坡，造成人员伤亡和财产损失。本次会议的目标是更好地理解i）造成危害的物理过程，ii）这些过程的数学模型和模型方程中的不确定性范围，以及iii）该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Better prediction of natural hazards could save lives and mitigate destruction of property. This conference will address the question of uncertainty in coupled mathematical models of physical systems and the impact of this uncertainty on hazard prediction. It will provide a venue to introduce young geoscientists, computational mathematicians, and statisticians to each other and to senior researchers. It will identify specific problems of interest and new collaborations focused around the challenges of coupled hazard models.Uncertainty analysis in mathematical models of physical systems is still in development. Only recently has the effect of uncertainty been incorporated into hazard predictions. However, most hazards are the consequences of a cascade of effects. For example, rain weakens soil on a fire-scorched hillside, which causes a landslide that can harm people and damage property. The goal of this conference is to better understand i) the physical processes causing the hazard, ii) the mathematical models of these processes and the range of uncertainty in the model equations, and iii) the coupling of events leading to hazards and the associated propagation of uncertainties from one model to the next.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.