Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Future ArcTic Ecosystems (FATE): drivers of diversity and future scenarios from ethno-ecology, contemporary ecology and ancient DNA

需要对社会经济和全球环境趋势在生物多样性和生态系统服务方面的复杂相互作用进行创新研究，以帮助制定更多信息的情景，应对环境和人类发展挑战。 耦合的自然-人类系统;为了克服这些挑战，需要改进生物多样性和生态系统服务的设想方案，将土地使用变化、外来入侵物种、过度开发、环境变化、污染等直接和间接驱动因素的产出结合起来，并建立这些驱动因素对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响模型。 这些整体方法提供了一种最先进的方法，可导致更准确的定量评估以及生物多样性和生态系统服务的环境共同惠益。这项研究建立在这样的方法来研究北极生态系统的变化，目前正在经历巨大的变化，对生态系统服务，包括粮食生产，气候调节，自然资源和文化完整性的直接影响。这项研究将结合土著知识和尖端科学方法，以绘制关键北极物种分布和丰度随时间变化的长期概况。这项工作的更广泛影响包括挪威、瑞典、芬兰、法国、德国、加拿大和丹麦以及教科文组织之间的国际合作。 这一大规模的国际合作将有助于在对北极有兴趣的国家和社区之间建立桥梁;让从地方社区到国家环境保护机构的利益攸关方参与，包括土著人民;并开发一个关于北极系统的影响深远和丰富的公共数据资源，供各国和各学科的自然和社会科学家使用。除了开发能够从沉积物中恢复古代DNA并将其与其他数据类型相结合的新程序外，该项目还将开发生态预测模型，其中纳入北极生物多样性在过去和未来可能发生的变化。其他影响包括科学与教育的融合，以及培养学生成为下一代国际学者。该奖项支持美国研究人员参与一个项目，该项目由来自23个国家的26个资助机构通过贝尔蒙特论坛征集关于“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景”的建议而竞争性地选出。该呼吁是一项多边倡议，旨在支持有助于制定情景、模型和决策支持工具的研究项目，以了解和解决我们星球面临的关键问题。 竞赛的目的是改进和应用参与式情景方法，以提高研究的相关性及其接受程度，并解决影响驱动因素和政策干预建模方法方面的差距。它还将制定和传达与模型相关的不确定性水平，以改善数据的可访问性，并填补知识空白。资金支持美国参与一个大型国际财团，该财团将开发结合化学，物理和多分类生态数据的生态预测模型。这些模式将包括土著人民等广泛利益攸关方的投入。该项目的目标是大大提高对北极生物多样性如何随着时间的推移而变化以及未来可能发生变化的理解。 来自其他国家的参与者通过其相关的国家供资组织获得资助。这项工作的美国部分将通过从环北极湖泊收集的长沉积物岩心中分离环境DNA，记录晚更新世和全新世植物和动物的分布和丰度变化。这些数据将与国际合作者提供的关于物种分布和丰富度随时间变化的数据相结合，这些数据来自地方社区和土著人民几代人以来的记录。全套信息将用于解决：北极不同地点生物多样性如何随时间变化;确定这些变化在空间和时间上的差异;梳理出北极生物多样性变化的生态和人为驱动因素;并弄清楚如何将联合收割机定量生态系统测量与当地社区的轶事和记录账户结合起来，这些社区与植被，气候，草食动物，以及其他人为因素的影响利用这些信息，将创建支持可持续生态系统管理的模型生成情景，以应对整个环北极地区发生的加速社会生态转变。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Innovative research on the complex interaction of socio-economic and global environmental trends on biodiversity and ecosystem services is needed to help develop more informative scenarios for addressing environmental and human development challenges. Coupled natural-human systems; improved scenarios of biodiversity; and ecosystem services that couple the outputs of both direct and indirect drivers such as land use change, invasive alien species, overexploitation, environmental change, pollution, and models of impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem service are needed to overcome these challenges. These holistic approaches provide a methodological state-of-the art that results in more accurate quantitative assessments and environmental co-benefits of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This research builds on such methodology to examine changes in Arctic ecosystems that are currently experiencing dramatic change with immediate impacts on ecosystem services involving food production, climate regulation, natural resources, and cultural integrity. This research will integrate indigenous knowledge and cutting-edge scientific approaches to develop long-term profiles of changes in the distribution and abundance of key Arctic species over time. Broader impacts of the work include international collaboration between Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, and Denmark as well as UNESCO. This large international collaboration will help build bridges between countries and communities with interests in the Arctic; engage stakeholders ranging from local communities to national environmental protection agencies, including indigenous peoples; and develop a far-reaching and rich, public data resource on Arctic systems that will be available to natural and social scientists across countries and disciplines. In addition to the development of new processes that will allow the recovery of ancient DNA from sediments and their integration with other data types, this project will develop ecological forecasting models that incorporate how the diversity of organisms in the Arctic has changed in the past and is likely to change in the future. Additional impacts include the integration of science and education and training students to be the next generation of international scholars. This award supports U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 26 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum call for proposals on "Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services". The call was a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that contribute to the development of scenarios, models, and decision-support tools for understanding and solving critical issues facing our planet. The goal of the competition was to improve and apply participatory scenario methods to enhance research relevance and its acceptance and to address gaps in methods for modelling impact drivers and policy interventions. It was also to develop and communicate levels of uncertainty associated with the models, to improve data accessibility, and fill gaps in knowledge. Funds support U.S. participants in a large international consortium that will develop ecological forecasting models that incorporate chemical, physical, and multi-taxa ecological data. The models will include input from a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including indigenous peoples. Goals of this project are to dramatically improve understanding how the diversity of organisms in the Arctic has changed over time and is likely to change in the future. Participants in this effort from other countries are funded through their associated national funding organizations. The U.S. component of the work will generate records of the changing distribution and abundance of plants and animals across the Late Pleistocene and Holocene by isolating environmental DNA from long sediment cores collected from lakes across the circumpolar North. These data will be combined with that from international collaborators about changes in the distribution and abundance of species over time taken from records from local communities and indigenous peoples extending back generations. The full suite of information will be used to address: how the diversity of living organisms has changed over time at different locations in the Arctic; determine how different these changes have been across space and time; tease out what the ecological and anthropogenic drivers appear to be in changes in Arctic biodiversity; and figure out how to combine quantitative ecosystems measurements with anecdotal and recorded accounts from local communities who interact with the vegetation, climate, herbivory, and other anthropogenic influences. With this information, model-generated scenarios will be created that support sustainable ecosystem management in the face of accelerating socio-ecological transformations occurring throughout the circumpolar North.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.