Housing - Macroeconomy, Financial Intermediation, and Monetary Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence from U.S. and European Economies

最近的经济事件戏剧性地突显了住房和金融在商业周期中发挥的重要作用。尽管研究房地产市场和金融中介的经济学研究无疑随之增加，但只有少数几项分析是在经过校准的一般均衡环境下进行的，即模型的数量特性与观察到的商业周期特征大致一致的经济环境。我们的建议是在以前研究的基础上弥补这一不足。这一研究项目的总体目标是建立一个理论和计算框架，帮助我们理解：[1]贷款渠道的不确定性如何在商业周期的不同阶段影响经济(包括金融和房地产市场)；[2]信贷约束的异质因素对房价和商业周期的影响是什么；具体而言，我们的计划是将Dorofeenko、Lee和Salyer(2012)提出的住房供应/银行部门模型与Iaco viello和Neri(2010)提出的住房需求模型相结合，以考察生产不确定性、金融中介和信贷约束家庭等因素如何影响房价和总体经济活动。此外，这一分析是在一个货币框架内进行的，该框架允许研究如何利用货币政策来减轻源自住房部门的周期性现象的有害影响。

Recent economic events have dramatically underscored the important roles that housing and finance play in the business cycle. And while there has no doubt been a concomitant increase in economic research which examines housing markets and financial intermediation, only a few analyses have been conducted in a calibrated, general equilibrium setting; i.e. an economic environment in which the quantitative properties of the model are broadly consistent with observed business cycle characteristics. Our proposal is to remedy this deficiency by building on our previous research. The broad objective of this research project is to develop a theoretical and computational framework that can help us understand: [1] how does uncertainty in lending channel effect economies (including both financial and housing markets) at different stages of business cycle; [2] what are the effects associated with credit constrained heterogenous agents on the housing prices and the business cycle; and [3] what types monetary policies might help (or hinder) the process of housing and financial development.In particular, our plan is to merge the housing supply/banking sector model as developed in Dorofeenko, Lee, and Salyer (2012) with the model of housing demand presented in Iacoviello and Neri (2010) in order to examine how the factors of production uncertainty, financial intermediation, and credit constrained households can affect housing prices and aggregate economic activity. Moreover, this analysis is cast within a monetary framework which permits a study of how monetary policy can be used to mitigate the deleterious effects of cyclical phenomenon that originates in the housing sector