Collaborative Research: P2C2--Winter Climate Anomalies across North America: Benchmarking Instrumental Trends and Model Projections with High Resolution Paleoclimatology

该项目旨在：1)在加利福尼亚和密歇根州开发500年的树木年轮数据集，这些数据集在重建北美不同地区大气环流的冬季条件方面具有独特的能力；2)重建影响这些地区和美国大部分地区气候的主要冬季大气环流模式；3)测试在过去500年中，外部强迫如何影响重建的冬季气候异常和相关的大气环流模式。这些大陆尺度的大气环流重建将依赖于两组不同的仪器前代用记录，每组记录都代表北美冬季偶极子的一面，其特征是近几十年来大陆两侧的极端条件日益增加。因此，这些冬季古代用物可以用来帮助破译冬季气候的驱动因素，如极地急流和北极放大，以响应变暖趋势和在年代际时间尺度上的内部变率。潜在的更广泛的影响包括支持早期职业科学家、研究生和本科生，以及开发新的和创新的气候数据集，以供更广泛的气候研究界使用。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to: 1) develop 500 year tree-ring-based data sets in California and Michigan that are distinctive in their ability to reconstruct winter conditions across distinct regions of atmospheric circulation over North America; 2) develop reconstructions of prominent winter atmospheric circulation patterns affecting climate across these regions and much of the United States; and 3) test how external forcing, across the last 500 years, may have impacted the reconstructed winter climate anomalies and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. These continental-scale reconstructions of atmospheric circulation will rely on two distinctive sets of pre-instrumental proxy records that each represents a side of the North American winter dipole that has been characterized by increasingly extreme conditions on either side of the continent over recent decades. Hence, these winter paleo proxies can be used to help decipher drivers of winter climate, such as the polar jet stream and arctic amplification, in response to warming trends and within the context of the internal variability on inter-decadal timescales.The potential Broader Impacts include support for early career scientists and graduate and undergraduate students as well as the development of new and innovative sets of climate data of use to the wider climate research community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.