The Role of Individual and Social Networks in the Formation and Change of Beliefs

人类思想的一个独特特征是信仰的发展和维持。人们对真假以及世界上是否存在事物有着持久的感知。信仰是人类意义的核心。人类信仰的本质——它们的结构、功能和变化——几十年来一直是许多科学领域研究的主题。过去的理论和研究以两种截然不同的方式来探讨这个问题。一种是在行为科学和认知科学中最常见的，那就是了解一个人的信念网络是如何相互关联的。另一个，在社会和经济科学中最常见的，是了解一个人的信仰是如何与一个社会网络中其他人的信仰联系起来的。所有这些理解信仰本质的努力都受到了更广泛的影响。例如，公共卫生运动旨在改变信仰，并最终改变行为，以服务于社会的健康和福利。这个项目的目的是发展一个新的理论框架，整合个人和社会层面对信念网络的理解。一个预期的结果是更好地理解为什么有些信仰抗拒改变，而另一些则不是。本项目采用网络视角来研究为什么有些信念比其他信念更抗拒改变。从心理学、社会学、经济学、计算机科学和统计物理学中，形成了一个统一的理论框架。该模型的前提是，信念的网络动态在个人和社会层面上遵循相似的原则——人们被激励去减少自己的信念网络和社会网络中的不和谐（能量）。该模型提供了关于个人和社会层面的信念网络如何共同影响信念对变化的抵抗力的新颖预测。该模型在四波纵向调查中进行了测试，允许评估随时间的信念动态。在第三波之前引入实验性操作，允许评估潜在的干预措施。数据分析依赖于先进的统计模型，包括统计物理模型、网络模型、结构方程模型和多层模型。该项目将通过将先前关于个人和社会信仰的不相关文献整合到一个单一的理论框架中，并开发和测试关于个人和社会网络结构对信仰随时间变化的共同影响的定性和定量预测，来推进基础知识。这项研究将有助于建立知识基础，为旨在增加一般人口科学知识的教育干预措施的设计提供信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

One unique feature of human thought is the development and maintenance of beliefs. People carry with them an enduring sense of what is true or false, and whether or not things exist in the world. Beliefs are central to what it means to be human. The nature of human beliefs -- their structure, function, and change -- has been the subject of study across many fields of science over many decades. Past theories and research have approached the subject in two distinct ways. One, most common in the behavioral and cognitive sciences, is to understand how a single person's network of beliefs relate to one another. Another, most common in the social and economic sciences, is to understand how one person's beliefs are related to the beliefs of other people in one's social network. All of these efforts to understand the nature of beliefs are motivated by important broader impacts. For example, public health campaigns aim to change beliefs, and ultimately behaviors, in service of the health and welfare of society. The aim of this project is to develop a new theoretical framework that integrates understanding of belief networks at both the individual and social levels. One expected outcome is a better understanding of why some beliefs are resistant to change while others are not.This project adopts a network perspective to study why some beliefs are more resistant to change than others. Drawing from psychology, sociology, economics, computer science, and statistical physics, a unifying theoretical framework is developed. The premise of the model is that network dynamics of beliefs follow similar principles at the individual and at the social level -- that people are motivated to reduce dissonance (energy) both in their own belief network and in their social networks. The model provides novel predictions about how networks of beliefs on individual and social levels jointly affect belief's resistance to change. The model is tested in a longitudinal survey conducted in four waves, allowing an assessment of belief dynamics over time. An experimental manipulation is introduced before the third wave, allowing for the assessment of potential interventions. The data analyses rely on advanced statistical models including statistical physics modeling, network modeling, structural equation modeling, and multilevel modeling. The project will advance basic knowledge by integrating previously disconnected literatures on individual and social beliefs in a single theoretical framework, and developing and testing qualitative and quantitative predictions about the joint effects of individual and social network structures on belief change over time. The research will contribute to a foundation of knowledge that informs the design of educational interventions aimed at increasing scientific knowledge in the general population.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.