Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE)

这是一个支持THINICE继续规划的奖项。NSF不承诺资助实地项目、相关分析和数值模拟工作。这些供资决定将通过进一步审查确定。近几十年来，北极已经转变为更灵活、更薄的海冰和更广阔的开放海洋。这些深刻变化的一个结果是北极气旋（ac）在海冰损失方面的作用日益重要，北极气旋在3天内以惊人的50万平方公里的速度发生，这一面积比加利福尼亚还大，大约相当于西班牙。准确预测这种海冰损失以及北极气旋、海冰和公海之间的相互作用，对公共安全、商业和国家安全变得越来越重要。不幸的是，即使在天气时间尺度上，准确预测ac和海冰损失也常常是一个挑战。该奖项支持THINICE继续规划以应对这一挑战。抽样计划将包括2021年7月和8月为期6周的国际多机构实地活动，其中包括补充的数值模拟和分析部分。该科学项目概述（SPO）项目旨在组织第一个系统的观测调查，以增强我们对决定TPVs， ACs的位置，强度，演变和特征的关键机制及其影响海冰破裂和下降的潜力的理解。THINICE将直接为NSF“导航新北极”的目标做出贡献，这是该机构未来在科学和工程前沿投资的十大大胆想法之一。THINICE还将通过教育和推广活动，包括通过新颖的社交媒体努力，利用NSF的本科生研究经验项目，让土著学生参与进来，为NSF INCLUDES（工程和科学领域代表性不足的发现者学习者的全国社区包容）做出贡献。中纬度地区和北极地区的气旋动力学存在着根本的差异。ac因其对北极海冰的影响而受到关注。特别是，对流层顶极地涡旋（TPVs）是ac形成的重要前兆，当这些涡旋与低层斜压区相互作用时，就会发生气旋形成。北极和中纬度地区天气系统的另一个区别是，相对于潜热，高纬度地区的辐射过程更加重要。因此，云和辐射过程的处理可能对准确定义TPVs和ac的结构和强度至关重要。虽然已经开展了主要的实地运动来研究中纬度地区的气旋，但尚未对热带气旋和热带气旋进行详细的观测研究。THINICE SPO将与利用NSF-NCAR GV研究飞机的原位和遥感测量数据的计划进行协调，以提高我们对以下方面的认识：(1)控制ac和tpv强度、结构和演变的动力学和物理过程；(2) tpv与ACs之间的动力学相互作用，包括tpv在气旋形成中的作用以及当多个tpv相互作用时ACs如何被修饰；(3)夏季TPVs和ac与下伏海面和海冰的耦合，以及这种耦合如何导致海冰的快速损失和反馈，进而可能改变TPVs和ac。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This is an award to support continued planning for THINICE. It is not a commitment by NSF to fund the field project, related analysis and numerical simulation work. Those funding decisions will be determined by means of further review.In recent decades, the Arctic has transitioned to more mobile and thinner sea ice and more expansive stretches of open ocean. One outcome of these profound changes is the increasingly important role of Arctic Cyclones (ACs) in the loss of sea ice, which can occur at an astonishing rate of 1/2 million km2 within a 3-day period, an area that is bigger than California and approximately the size of Spain. An accurate prediction of such sea ice losses and the interplay between Arctic cyclones, sea ice and the open ocean is becoming increasing important for public safety, commerce, and national security. Unfortunately, the accurate prediction of ACs and sea ice loss is often a challenge, even on weather time-scales. This award supports continued planning for the THINICE to address this challenge. The sampling plan will include a 6-week international, multi-agency field campaign for July and August 2021 with a complementary numerical modeling and analysis component. This Scientific Project Overview (SPO) project is to organize the first systematic observational investigation to enhance our understanding of the critical mechanisms that determine the location, strength, evolution, and characteristics of TPVs, ACs and their potential for influencing sea ice break-up and decline. THINICE will directly contribute to NSF's goal of 'Navigating the New Arctic', which is one of the agencies ten bold ideas for future investment at the frontiers of science and engineering. THINICE will also contribute to NSF INCLUDES (Inclusion across the Nation of Communities of Learners of Underrepresented Discoverers in Engineering and Science) through educational and outreach activities that utilize NSF's Research Experience for Undergraduates program to involve indigenous students, including through novel social media efforts. Fundamental differences exist between the dynamics of cyclones in middle latitude and the Arctic. ACs have received attention for their impact on the Arctic sea ice. In particular, Tropopause Polar Vortices (TPVs) serve as an important precursor to the formation of ACs with cyclogenesis taking place when these vortices interact with low-level baroclinic zones. Another difference between weather systems in the Arctic and middle latitudes is the increased importance at higher latitudes of radiative processes relative to latent heating. Thus, the treatment of cloud and radiative processes is likely critical to accurately defining the structure and intensity of TPVs and ACs. While major field campaigns have been launched to study cyclones in middle latitudes, detailed observational studies of TPVs and ACs have not yet been undertaken. The THINICE SPO will coordinate efforts with plans to utilize in-situ and remote sensing measurements taken from the NSF-NCAR GV research aircraft to advance our knowledge of: (1) The dynamical and physical processes that control the intensity, structure, and evolution of ACs and TPVs; (2) The dynamical interactions between TPVs and ACs, including the role of TPVs in cyclogenesis and how ACs are modified when multiple TPVs are interactive; and (3) The coupling of TPVs and ACs with the underlying sea surface and sea ice during the summer, and how such coupling can lead to rapid sea ice loss and feedbacks that might, in turn, modify TPVs and ACs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.