Sensitivity of the midlatitude waveguide to the dynamics and observations of Arctic tropopause-based vortices

中纬度波导对北极对流层顶涡动力学和观测的敏感性

• 批准号: 1461838
• 负责人: Steven Cavallo
• 金额: $ 29.81万
• 依托单位: University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2020-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1461838&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Sensitivity; midlatitude; waveguide; dynamics; observations

Heating due to infrared radiation is a great source of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction models, and high impact weather events are often strongly influenced by sub-synoptic-scale features that affect such heating. This proposal will closely examine specific processes active within tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) before they encounter the jet stream. Improved knowledge gained through detailed analysis of the processes, and their interactions with the jet stream, will lead to improvements in weather and climate prediction by improving their representation in numerical models. TPVs are unique because they can exist for long periods of time before affecting the jet stream, and are therefore a key feature to observe and accurately represent.The principal investigator will develop human capacity and teach students how to advance science through the entire spectrum of research. Quality-controlled datasets, developed during the course of the research, will be made openly available to the research community for use as a long-term tool for predictability studies.The proposed work would test the hypothesis: diabatic heating from radiation, coupled with weak deformation, is required to maintain the structure of tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) as they encounter increasing vertical shear associated with the waveguide. The project will use three approaches: (1) analyzing the statistical characteristics of TPVs based upon downstream impact, (2) isolating and identifying important physical processes important for TPV development and maintaining TPV intensity as they approach the waveguide through controlled numerical modeling experiments, and (3) diagnosing key uncertainties to identify specific methods of improving process representation in numerical models. Experiments will be conducted using the atmospheric version of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and parallel simulations using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART).

红外辐射加热是天气和气候预测模式中一个很大的不确定性来源，高影响天气事件往往受到影响这种加热的次天气尺度特征的强烈影响。本提案将仔细研究在对流层顶极地涡旋（TPVs）遇到急流之前活跃的特定过程。通过对这些过程的详细分析以及它们与急流的相互作用所获得的知识的改进，将通过改进它们在数值模式中的表现来改进天气和气候预测。tpv是独特的，因为它们可以在影响急流之前存在很长一段时间，因此是观察和准确表示的关键特征。首席研究员将开发人的能力，并教学生如何通过整个研究领域推进科学。在研究过程中开发的质量控制数据集将公开提供给研究界，作为可预测性研究的长期工具。拟议的工作将验证这样一个假设：当对流层顶极地涡旋（TPVs）遇到与波导相关的垂直切变时，需要来自辐射的绝热加热，加上弱变形，以维持它们的结构。该项目将采用三种方法：(1)基于下游影响分析TPV的统计特征，(2)通过受控数值模拟实验分离和识别对TPV发展和保持TPV强度至关重要的重要物理过程，以及(3)诊断关键不确定性，以确定改进数值模型中过程表示的具体方法。实验将使用跨尺度预测模式（MPAS）的大气版本进行，并使用具有数据同化研究试验台（DART）的高级天气研究与预报（ARW）模式进行并行模拟。