CNH2-L: Linkages and Interactions Between Urban Food Security and Rural Agricultural Systems

本研究调查城市粮食安全和农村农业生产之间的联系和相互作用。具体而言，该项目评估环境变化对农村农业生产的影响，以及这种变化如何影响城市粮食安全，并进而评估城市人口增长如何影响对当地和区域农业生产的需求，这是通过粮食贸易和其他流动来衡量的。未来的挑战是满足城市由于人口增长、粮食消费模式性质的变化以及地方和区域粮食生产易受环境变化影响而产生的粮食需求。全球化以及粮食和商品的国际流动和贸易是城市地区如何满足未来粮食需求的关键方面。但城市地区与国际、区域和当地粮食系统的连通程度不同。鉴于城市化的复杂模式及其与全球、区域和地方粮食供应链的不同参与，需要进行新的研究，以了解哪些类型的城市最容易受到地方和区域作物生产的影响，以及哪些类型的城市群可以通过从遥远地区进口粮食来减轻这些影响。该项目对维护未来城市粮食安全的挑战以及地方，区域和全球粮食流动如何在不同的社会环境条件下影响城市粮食安全产生了新的和变革性的理解。 这对国家安全问题产生影响，对经济发展也令人关切。该项目包括教育和利益相关者参与，并传播学术和政策相关材料。该项目使用一种新的空间网络方法，通过分析最近和预测的城市粮食需求情景下的农村粮食生产，对区域内和国际边界的粮食流动进行建模。这一空间分析与在不同规模和不同地理背景的城市地区收集的住户调查数据相联系，以了解农村农业生产的冲击如何影响城市粮食流动。家庭一级的信息与粮食需求和生产信息以及定价信息相联系。虽然有大量的研究侧重于农村粮食不安全的驱动因素和结果，但在了解城市粮食不安全的驱动因素方面所做的工作较少。此外，大多数城市粮食安全研究都集中在大都市地区，主要是灵长类城市，尽管现实情况是，大量的城市居民生活在中小型城市。该项目将在综合社会环境系统研究方面取得重要的理论进展，并将通过建立城乡反馈和一体化模型，以及通过制定理解粮食安全日益重要的中小城市层面的方法，作出方法上的贡献。该研究将在各种环境中进行，但研究结果的应用与许多正在经历社会环境变化的城市地区以及这如何影响城市粮食安全有关。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

This research investigates the linkages and interactions between urban food security and rural agricultural production. Specifically, the project evaluates the impacts of environmental variability on rural agricultural production and how this affects urban food security, and, in turn, how urban population growth affects the demand for local and regional agricultural production, as measured through food trade and other flows. Future challenges lie ahead in terms of meeting urban food demand due to population growth, the changing nature of food consumption patterns, and the vulnerability of both local and regional food production to environmental variability. Globalization and international flows and trade of food and commodities are key aspects of how urban areas will meet future food demand. But urban areas exhibit different levels of connectivity to international, regional, and local food systems. Given complex patterns of urbanization and their differential engagement with global, regional, and local food supply chains, new research is needed to understand what types of urban places are most vulnerable to impacts of local and regional crop production, and what type of urban agglomerations can mitigate those impacts through food imports from distant areas. This project produces a new and transformative understanding of the challenges of maintaining future urban food security and how local, regional, and global food flows affect urban food security under different socio-environmental conditions. This has implications for national security issues and is of concern for economic development. The project includes educational and stakeholder engagement and disseminates academic and policy relevant materials.The project uses a novel spatial network approach to model the flow of food within regions and across international borders by analyzing rural food production under recent and projected urban food demand scenarios. This spatial analysis is linked to household survey data collected in urban areas of different sizes and within different geographic contexts to understand how shocks in rural agricultural production affect urban food flows. Household level information is linked to food demand and production information, as well as pricing information. While there has been a considerable amount of research focusing on the drivers and outcomes of rural food insecurity, less work has been done to understand the drivers of urban food insecurity. Additionally, most urban food security research has focused on large metropolitan areas, mostly primate cities, despite the reality that significant numbers of urban residents live in small to moderate sized urban places. This project will make important theoretical advancements in integrated socio-environmental systems research and will make methodological contributions by modelling urban-rural feedbacks and integration and by developing ways of understanding the increasingly important small-to-moderate urban dimension of food security. The research will be conducted in a variety of settings, but the application of the findings is relevant to many urban areas undergoing socio-environmental change, and how this impacts urban food security.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.