NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: ARC-NAV: Arctic Robust Communities-Navigating Adaptation to Variability

新北极航行（NNA）是NSF的十大创意之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的趋同科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和地球仪的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA授权从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了这一目标的一部分。北极的平均变暖速度是地球其他地区的两倍，这导致海冰发生重大变化，当地社区必须做出反应。 白令海是北极地区的一个地区，包括美国和俄罗斯的领土，预计在未来世纪将经历海冰条件的最高变化。该项目关注的问题是：我们如何设计更好、更灵活的治理和基础设施，以适应不断变化的北极条件？ 为了回答这个问题，该团队正在采取一种融合方法来预测北极海冰环境的潜在变化以及这些变化对社会和生态系统的影响，并确定适应性战略，以提高对这些影响的适应能力。 该项目在整个研究过程中充分吸收北极地区的当地和土著社区以及决策者参与，以生成与当地社区有关的海冰变化关键热点的信息和模型。这将有助于建立地方和区域治理能力，使研究人员能够模拟和预测社区预测变化的稳健性，地方和土著社区与科学家之间的知识共同生产，以及跨学科和国家边界的合作研究，将用于解决四个关键研究问题：1）人们如何理解和感知海冰的变化，以及他们如何适应冰况的变化？2)目前海冰变化的关键热点在哪里，随着环境和社区的变化，它们将来会在哪里？3)该区域的政府和非政府组织将如何应对不断变化的海冰状况，并与社区互动，以应对其不断变化的需求？和4）现有的，和潜在的，社会生态系统的哪些特征是强大的/脆弱的预测海冰的变化？该项目将通过扎根的人种学和文化共识分析，记录围绕地球物理变化以及社区之间和社区内部相关的生计和经济机会/成本的各种叙述和关键政策挑战。卫星数据将用于突出海冰变化的“热点”，并为社区和利益攸关方讨论“变化”提供一个起点。与治理行为体的访谈将确定优先事项和应对措施，并建立明确的空间政策网络。一个多主体模型将把这些分析联系起来，并被用来探索问题的多样性、变化的预测、社区及其所依赖的基础设施系统的脆弱性或稳健性。通过这项研究，该项目将对社区和机构对变化的反应、空间和时间变化在趋势中的影响、该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.The Arctic is warming on average twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, which is leading to significant changes in sea ice to which local communities must respond. Beringia, a region of the Arctic encompassing US and Russian territory, is expected to experience some of the highest variability in sea ice conditions in the coming century. This project focuses on the question: how do we design better and more flexible governance and infrastructure to adapt to changing Arctic conditions? To answer this question, the team is taking a convergence approach to forecast potential changes in the Arctic sea ice environment and the impacts on social and ecological systems resulting from those changes and identify adaptive strategies to enhance resilience to those impacts. The project fully engages local and Indigenous communities and decision makers in the Arctic throughout the research process to generate information and models about critical hot spots of sea ice change relevant to local communities. This will help build local and regional governance capacity and allow the researchers to model and predict the robustness of communities to forecast changes.Coproduction of knowledge between local and Indigenous communities and scientists, and collaborative research across disciplinary and national boundaries, will be used to address four key research questions: 1) How do people understand and perceive changing sea ice, and how do they adapt to variability in ice conditions? 2) Where are the current critical hot spots of variability in sea ice, and where will they be in the future as the environment and communities change? 3) How will governmental and non-governmental organizations in the region navigate changing sea ice conditions and interact with communities to respond to their changing needs? and 4) What features of the existing, and potential, social-ecological systems are robust/fragile to forecast changes in sea ice? This project will document diverse narratives and critical policy challenges around biogeophysical changes and associated livelihood and economic opportunities/costs between and within communities through grounded ethnography and cultural consensus analysis. Satellite data will be used to highlight "hot spots" of sea ice variability and provide a starting point for community and stakeholders' discussions of "change". Interviews with governance actors will identify priorities and responses and generate spatially explicit policy networks. A multi-agent model will link these analyses and be utilized to explore the diversity of issues, projections of change, and fragility or robustness of communities and the infrastructure systems they rely on. Through this research, the project will derive new understandings of community and institutional responses to change, the impacts of spatial and temporal variability within a trend, and robustness-fragility trade-offs that can be applied to other regions as they navigate transitions around the globe in the Anthropocene.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.