NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development

NNA 第 1 轨道：合作研究：应对北极发展的汇聚压力

• 批准号: 2022599
• 负责人: Amanda Lynch
• 金额: $ 116.4万
• 依托单位: Brown University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2022599&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; Navigating

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems, natural environment, and built environment in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Few transformations are as dramatic or as complex as those occurring now in the Arctic. There are rapid changes in climate and the environment, in international treaties and regulations, in national security, and claims for territory. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples are looking to find their place in a changing global economy. This convergence of changes and aspirations is leading to questions about what kinds of infrastructure are needed, where it should be located, and how this may impact Arctic people and environment. This project is using a combination of observations, satellites, maps, and models to identify where useful and viable locations for new development might be located. These kinds of data and analysis have not been combined before to make such an assessment. These locations are then explored with communities, emergency managers, environmental scientists, industry representatives, local governments, and members of Indigenous groups. Through this merging of environmental sciences, real-world engineering, financial analyses, and cultural concerns, the project is documenting likely future developments and understand their impacts on the Arctic environment and its people.Alongside amplified Arctic environmental change, changes in global markets, regional geopolitics, and community aspirations are motivating visions of new opportunities to develop or enhance new industries in shipping, resource extraction, tourism, and fisheries. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous peoples are making clear their aspirations for the future. This project asks how these converging pressures will shape Arctic development between now and 2050. The project is using an approach that is novel through its convergence of diverse disciplines, as follows. Plausible locations for development are being identified using natural resource distributions, national- and company-level ambitions, and community aspirations. High-resolution climate scenarios, observations, and satellite data are providing the environmental context for access and safety requirements. Financial and environmental assessments, regulations, and treaties provide a third layer of evaluation. The integrated product is then interrogated in an iterative manner with an independent International Reference Group of academic, Indigenous and practitioner experts. Through this process, the project is developing an assessment identifying convergent geophysical and socioeconomic pressures on Arctic development, and their potential cascading impacts on local communities, the environment, global commodity chains, and international relations. This assessment seeks to provide a knowledge resource for engagements in grounded community-based research as well as supporting communities, governments, businesses and industries seeking to navigate the New Arctic.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了从地方到国际的新的研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当的情况下整合共同创造知识。该奖项通过在以下NNA重点领域解决社会系统、自然环境和建筑环境之间的相互作用来实现这一目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。很少有变化像北极现在发生的那样戏剧性或复杂。气候和环境、国际条约和条例、国家安全和领土主张都在迅速变化。与此同时，北极社区和土著人民正在寻求在不断变化的全球经济中找到自己的位置。这种变化和愿望的汇聚引发了这样的问题：需要什么样的基础设施，应该设在哪里，以及这可能会如何影响北极的人民和环境。该项目使用观测、卫星、地图和模型的组合来确定新开发项目可能位于的有用和可行的位置。这些数据和分析以前没有结合起来做出这样的评估。然后与社区、应急管理人员、环境科学家、行业代表、地方政府和土著团体成员一起探索这些地点。通过环境科学、现实世界工程、金融分析和文化关注的融合，该项目记录了未来可能的发展，并了解它们对北极环境和北极人民的影响。从侧面放大了北极环境变化、全球市场变化、区域地缘政治和社区愿望，激发了发展或加强航运、资源开采、旅游和渔业等新产业的新机会的愿景。与此同时，北极社区和土著人民正在明确他们对未来的渴望。这个项目的问题是，从现在到2050年，这些汇聚的压力将如何影响北极的发展。该项目正在使用一种通过融合不同学科而具有新颖性的方法，如下所示。正在利用自然资源分布、国家和公司层面的雄心以及社区愿望来确定合理的发展地点。高分辨率气候情景、观测和卫星数据正在为准入和安全要求提供环境背景。财务和环境评估、法规和条约提供了第三层评估。然后与一个由学术、土著和从业人员专家组成的独立国际参考小组以迭代的方式对综合产品进行审问。通过这一进程，该项目正在制定一项评估，确定北极开发面临的地球物理和社会经济压力及其对当地社区、环境、全球商品链和国际关系的潜在连锁影响。这项评估旨在为参与基于社区的研究提供知识资源，并支持寻求在新北极航行的社区、政府、企业和行业。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Simple Method to Extract Lake Ice Condition From Landsat Images

• DOI: 10.1109/tgrs.2021.3088144
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Xiao Yang;T. Pavelsky;Liam Bendezu;Shuai Zhang

The Ecology of River Ice

河冰生态

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006275
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• 作者: Thellman, Audrey;Jankowski, Kathi Jo;Hayden, Brian;Yang, Xiao;Dolan, Wayana;Smits, Adrianne P.;O'Sullivan, Antóin M.
• 通讯作者: O'Sullivan, Antóin M.

The Russian Maritime Arctic

俄罗斯北极海域

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: The Wilson quarterly
• 作者: Brigham, L.W.

Arctic Maritime Cyclone Distribution and Trends in the ERA5 Reanalysis

ERA5 再分析中的北极海上气旋分布和趋势

• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0016.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Chen, Zihan;Lynch, Amanda H.
• 通讯作者: Lynch, Amanda H.

Arctic Navigation and Climate Change: Projections from Science for the Law of the Sea

北极航行与气候变化：海洋法科学的预测

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: International law studies
• 作者: Norchi, C.H.;Lynch, A.H.
• 通讯作者: Lynch, A.H.