NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Maritime transportation in a changing Arctic: Navigating climate and sea ice uncertainties

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项部分实现了这一目标。最近的气候变化导致北冰洋的海冰减少。这一发展开辟了新的北极旅行路线，并增加了现有航线上的船舶交通量。增加的航运需要一个可靠的北极海上导航系统，以确保安全和效率。然而，由于气候、天气和海冰条件的重大不确定性，与一般海上运输相比，北极的航行风险管理面临许多挑战。该项目通过开发一种预测北极未来气候和海冰状况的综合方法来解决这些不确定性。研究结果被用于评估北极海上航行的风险。这项研究的结果支持一个安全、可靠和有弹性的导航系统，为寻求通过北极的有效过境路线的托运人提供支持。其他人也将受益，包括紧急救援人员、当地社区、北极研究人员、渔业和游艇以及其他利益相关者。该项目正在开发和应用一个基于风险的框架，将环境条件分析、航行风险评估和事故后果评估整合在一起。气候和海冰模型分析，以概率评估环境条件和北极航线的可通航性。模拟海冰厚度被用作航路可通航性的示踪剂。对气候模式输出进行分析，以便更好地了解沿路线和随时间的平均状态和空间变率。事件发生的可能性正在使用贝叶斯预测模型进行评估，该模型将不确定性与历史数据以及来自气候和海冰模型的最新信息结合起来。预测模型与经济相互依赖模型相结合，以评估北极航行事件的后果。由此产生的概率经济模型是事件发生可能性的函数，并在地方和全球尺度上评估直接和间接的经济影响。风险和经济评估的结果提供了对最重要的风险因素的反馈。额外的气候和海冰模型运行将用于进一步评估变量以完善风险模型。随机模拟将通过综合风险分析方法，在一系列气候模式和海冰条件的可能情景中进行迭代，以评估事件的可能性范围和经济影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Recent changes in climate have resulted in less sea ice in the Arctic ocean. This development has opened new Arctic travel routes and increased vessel traffic along existing shipping routes. Increased shipping requires a reliable Arctic maritime navigation system for safety and efficiency. However, navigation risk management in the Arctic poses many challenges compared to general maritime transportation due to significant uncertainties in climate, weather, and sea ice conditions. This project addresses these uncertainties by developing a comprehensive approach to forecast future climate and sea ice conditions in the Arctic. The results are being used to evaluate the resulting risk of Arctic maritime navigation. The outcome of this research supports a safe, reliable, and resilient navigation system for shippers seeking efficient transit routes through the Arctic. Others will benefit as well, including emergency responders, local communities, Arctic researchers, fishing and pleasure craft, and other stakeholders. This project is developing and applying a risk-based framework integrating an analysis of environmental conditions, an assessment of navigation risk, and an evaluation of the consequences of incidents. Climate and sea ice models are analyzed to probabilistically assess environmental conditions and navigability of Arctic routes. Modeled sea ice thickness is used as a tracer for navigability of shipping routes. Climate model output is analyzed to better understand the mean state and variability spatially along routes and over time. The likelihood of an incident is being evaluated using Bayesian predictive models to incorporate uncertainty with historical data and updated information from climate and sea ice models. The predictive models are integrated with economic interdependency models to evaluate consequences of Arctic navigation incidents. The resulting probabilistic economic models are a function of the likelihood of an incident occurring and evaluate direct and indirect economic impact at the local and global scales. The outcome of the risk and economic assessment provides feedback on the most significant risk factors. Additional climate and sea ice model runs will be used to further evaluate variables to refine risk models. A stochastic simulation will iterate through the integrated risk analysis approach over a range of possible scenarios of climate models and sea ice conditions to evaluate the range of likelihood and economic impact of incidents.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.