NSFGEO-NERC: CHANCE - understanding Compound flooding in the past, present and future for nortH AtlaNtic CoastlinEs

许多人口稠密的沿海地区容易受到多种类型的洪水的影响。风暴潮和海浪会从海洋影响沿海地区，而强降水可能会导致河流和城市洪水泛滥。这些类型的洪水事件通常被独立地考虑，但众所周知，相同的风暴可能会产生多种类型的洪水。该项目将解决这些多重、巧合的洪水事件，即所谓的复合洪水。该奖项的主要社会影响将是在天气预报和风险管理领域。研究团队将与其他联邦机构合作，如陆军工程兵团和美国地质调查局，将项目结果传达给基础设施规划社区。这个项目也代表了来自美国和英国的科学家之间的国际合作。这个项目解决了复合洪水的主题，即多个洪水驱动因素同时发生或紧密相继发生。复合洪水对海岸线的影响尤其大，那里的风暴潮、海浪、河流洪水和直接径流可以结合在一起，加剧潜在的洪水情况。研究小组包括来自英国和美国的人员，计划进行各种分析，包括相关性分析、最先进的天气分型方法、多变量极值分析和先进的整体水动力学模型，以确定复合洪水事件发生的地点和原因。该提案的具体目标是：1)确定可能导致北大西洋两岸海岸线复合事件的相关变量，并评估个别司机的空间足迹；2)评估过去哪些大尺度天气类型和其他条件导致了已确定的复合事件，并确定复合事件的频率是否以及如何在过去和未来可能发生变化；3)量化沿不同海岸线发生复合事件的可能性，包括相关变量和空间足迹；这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局(NSF/GEO)和联合王国国家环境研究委员会(NERC)通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协定共同资助的项目。该协定允许美国和英国提交一个单一的联合提案，并由该机构进行同行审查，该机构的调查员在预算中所占比例最大。在成功地共同确定一个奖项后，每个机构将为与其本国相关的预算和调查人员的比例提供资金。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Many populated coastal regions are vulnerable to multiple types of flooding. Storm surge and waves can impact coastal regions from the ocean and heavy precipitation can cause river and urban flooding. These kinds of flooding events have generally been considered independently, but it is well known that the same storms can produce multiple types of flooding. This project will address these multiple, coincidental flooding events, known as compound flooding. The main societal impact of the award will be in the areas of weather forecasting and risk management. The research team will engage other federal agencies, such as the Army Corps of Engineers and the US Geological Survey, to relay the results of the project to the infrastructure planning communities. This project also represents an international collaboration between scientists from the US and the UK.This project addresses the topic of compound flooding, where multiple flood drivers occur concurrently or in close succession. Compound flooding is especially impactful along coastlines, where storm surges, waves, river flooding, and direct runoff can combine to exacerbate potential flooding situations. The research team, including personnel from the UK and US, plan to conduct a variety of analyses, including dependence analyses, state-of-the-art weather typing approaches, multivariate extreme value analysis, and advanced ensemble hydrodynamic modelling to determine where and why compound flood events occur. The specific goals of the proposal are to: 1) Determine relevant variables that can lead to compound events along coastlines on both sides of the North Atlantic and assess the spatial footprints of the individual drivers; 2) Assess which large-scale weather types and other conditions led to the identified compound events in the past and determine if and how the frequency of compound events has changed in the past and may change in the future; 3) Quantify the likelihood of the occurrence of compound events along different stretches of coastline including relevant variables and spatial footprints; and 4) Integrate the results to quantify the extent to which compounding effects from multiple flood sources exacerbate impacts to coastal communities.This is a project that is jointly funded by the National Science Foundation's Directorate of Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget and the investigators associated with their own country.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.