CAREER: Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Flank Instability Processes

火山侧翼的大规模崩塌是地球上最大的物质消耗事件之一，并可能演变成能量充沛的横向爆炸，并产生危险和破坏性的海啸波。尽管存在这种危险，但导致或加剧侧翼塌陷风险的过程仍然知之甚少。所有火山的活动都是不同的，对于受不同侧面过程影响的大范围火山，需要探索和精确模拟侧面塌陷开始、持续或停止背后的原因。一组最初的类型火山包括基拉韦厄火山（夏威夷）、皮顿火山（法国）和喀拉喀托火山（印度尼西亚），对它们进行了广泛的观察，最近的失败模式对比明显。该项目将支持一位早期职业生涯的女性助理教授和她的多元化研究小组开发一套职业研究和教育工具，用于调查自然灾害和火山过程。该项目将资助宾夕法尼亚州立大学的两名研究生，其中包括一名女性国际学生，她们将接受数据处理、分析、解释和基于过程的建模方面的教育。该研究将整合到教育模块中，通过引人入胜的案例研究，开发具有引人注目的火山崩塌和地震动荡例子的有限元模型。本科生将与宾夕法尼亚州立大学额外主办的UNAVCO RESESS代表性不足的实习生一起参加高级论文。整体目标是为自然灾害、火山学和断层力学课程提供教育资源和教材，包括为非科学专业学生开设的大量通识教育课程。这项工作将加强宾夕法尼亚州立大学、美国地质勘探局、南达科他州矿业学院、萨瓦大学和Piton de la Fournaise天文台/IPGP法国之间的现有合作。预期的项目成果有可能阐明触发和维持火山侧翼大规模崩塌及其相关和潜在灾难性空气和海洋危害的关键机制。这一职业方案解决了为什么火山大厦的循环生长和破坏的风格、行为和时间在如此广泛的范围内变化？它侧重于海洋岛屿火山的侧翼崩塌，并使用建模来揭示代表类型火山光谱的数据集的观测复杂性。具体地说，这项工作将探讨崩塌的风格主要是如何由演化的大小、陡峭度、结构和大厦的强度控制的，反过来又受岩浆供应和成分的速度的制约，并受基底的外观和滑动界面特性的调节。关键的兴趣在于，这些特征的组合如何定义预期崩溃的独特特征。有限元（FE）模型将重现在海洋岛屿火山观测到的行为光谱，定义关键控制。地球物理观测的综合研究将限制基于过程的火山模型受侧面不稳定的影响。为了了解海洋岛屿火山的生长和崩塌在风格和时间上是如何变化的，研究人员将使用侧面运动的有限元模型来基准和应用新的数值模拟策略，重点关注火山成因类型、大小和侧面不稳定行为的互补谱。最初的一类火山包括基拉韦厄火山（夏威夷）、皮顿火山（法国）和喀拉喀托火山（印度尼西亚），跨度从大到小、从浅到陡、从盾状火山到层状火山。将开发一种新的数值模拟策略，并通过综合测试对其进行基准测试，然后将其应用于火山光谱中最近发生的侧面破坏事件。该方法是跨学科的，依靠前沿的有限元数值模拟方法来模拟变形和破坏，并受地震和大地测量（地面和InSAR）数据的约束，这些数据跨越多个时空尺度。侧翼材料的力学特性和非均质性的作用将通过地球物理和地质观测来解决，使促进坍塌进展的关键瞬态事件得以预测和定义。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Massive collapse of volcanic flanks is among the largest mass-wasting events on the planet and can evolve into energetic lateral blasts and spawn dangerous and destructive tsunami waves. Despite this hazard, the processes leading or aggravating the risk of flank collapse remain poorly understood. All volcanoes behave differently and the reasons behind initiation and persistence or arrest of flank collapse need to be explored and modeled accurately for a wide range of volcanoes affected by distinct flank processes. An initial suite of type-volcanoes comprises Kilauea (Hawaii), Piton de la Fournaise (France) and Anak Krakatau (Indonesia) for which extensive observations are available and where contrasting modes of recent failures are evident. This project will support an early-career, female assistant professor and her diverse research group to develop a suite of CAREER research and educational tools for investigating natural hazards and volcano processes. The project will fund two graduate students at Penn State, including a female international student, who will be educated in data processing, analysis, interpretation and process-based modeling. The research will be integrated in educational modules to develop FE models representing compelling examples of volcanic collapse and seismic unrest through engaging case studies. Undergraduate students will participate through senior theses with UNAVCO RESESS underrepresented interns additionally hosted at Penn State. The ensemble goal is to generate educational resources and teaching materials for courses in natural hazards, volcanology, and fault mechanics, including a large-enrollment General Education class for non-science majors. The work will exhance existing collaborations at Penn State, USGS, South Dakota School of Mines, Université de Savoie, and Piton de la Fournaise Observatory/IPGP France. Expected project outcomes have the potential to illuminate key mechanisms triggering and sustaining the massive collapse of volcano flanks and their associated and potentially catastrophic air- and sea-borne hazards.This CAREER proposal addresses why the style, behavior, and timing of the cyclic growth then destruction of volcanic edifices varies across such a wide spectrum? It focuses on flank collapse on ocean island volcanoes and in using modeling to unravel the observed complexity in data sets representing a spectrum of type volcanoes. Specifically, this work will explore how styles of collapse are primarily controlled by the evolved size, steepness, structure, and strength of the edifice, in turn conditioned by rates of magma supply and composition and modulated by the aspect and slip interface properties of the substrate. Of key interest is how combinations of these characteristics define the unique signature of the anticipated collapse. Finite Element (FE) models will reproduce the spectrum of observed behaviors at ocean island volcanoes, defining key controls. An integrated study of geophysical observations will constrain process-based models of volcanoes affected by flank instability. To develop an understanding of how growth and collapse of ocean island volcanoes vary in style and timing, the researcher will benchmark and apply novel numerical modeling strategies using FE models for flank motion, with a focus on a complementary spectrum of volcano genetic types, sizes, and flank instability behaviors. An initial suite of type-volcanoes comprises Kilauea (Hawaii), Piton de la Fournaise (France) and Anak Krakatau (Indonesia) spanning large-to-small, shallow-to-steep and shield- to strato-volcano. A new numerical modeling strategy will be developed and benchmarked through synthetic tests, then applied to recent episodes of flank failure for a spectrum of volcanoes. The approach is interdisciplinary, relying on cutting-edge FE numerical modeling approaches to model deformation and failure and constrained by seismic and geodetic (ground-based and InSAR) data spanning multiple spatial and temporal scales. Mechanical properties of flank materials and the role of heterogeneities will be addressed using geophysical and geological observations, enabling key transient events promoting progress to collapse to be projected and defined.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.