CAREER: Advancing Hurricane Landfall Science through Numerical Modeling, Observational Networking, and Greater Public Awareness

职业：通过数值建模、观测网络和提高公众意识推进飓风登陆科学

• 批准号: 0239492
• 负责人: Sytske Kimball
• 金额: $ 41.22万
• 依托单位: University of South Alabama
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2009-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0239492&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Advancing; Hurricane; Landfall; Science

The characteristics of hurricanes at landfall have been identified by the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) as a critical area deserving increased research attention. The reasons for focusing on landfall issues are: i) hurricane evolution at landfall is a highly complex and destructive process that is poorly understood and difficult to predict; ii) coastal populations are continuing to grow rapidly. Consequently, this CAREER project will focus on hurricane landfall in both its research and education components. In order to improve hurricane landfall forecasts, the process of hurricane landfall needs first to be better understood. This project will focus on rainfall and wind field evolution at landfall, in response to the physical factors of surface evaporation, surface roughness, terrain elevation, coastline configuration, hurricane size and intensity, and the angle at which the hurricane crosses the coast. Past research has included observational and modeled case studies, as well as a few simplified, idealized numerical modeling studies. Real case studies are complex with a myriad of processes all occurring at the same time, and the lack of real observations has made isolating them difficult. The idealized models made a good start at systematically isolating individual physical factors, but not all factors were addressed. This project will fill the gaps by repeating the earlier, simplified experiments, gradually increasing their complexity, and ending with landfall simulations on a realistic north central U.S. Gulf Coast. Using an advanced mesoscale meteorological model, important physical factors can be isolated one at a time. As this work progresses, research results will be shared with the University's Coastal Weather Research Center, the National Weather Service and the Mobile County Emergency Management Agency. Furthermore, local, public schools which predominantly serve students from poor and/or minority backgrounds, and retirement communities will be invited to attend Hurricane Information Days at USA. They will learn what exactly a hurricane is, why these storms are so difficult to predict, and that their local university performs hurricane research and teaches students and the general public about hurricanes. Throughout the 5-year period, meteorology undergraduates will function as research assistants. A surface observational network, or Mobile Bay Mesonet, will be established by i) incorporating existing surface observational sites (some to be upgraded); ii) adding new surface sites; and iii) including monthly sea surface temperature measurements in Mobile Bay. Most of the 10 planned new stations, like 65 of the existing ones, will be located on public school campuses and their students will be involved in collecting and using meteorological data. The collected data can be used in a range of local research and educational projects. The PI will join forces with local organizations such as the National Weather Service, Mobile office, and the GLOBE Program to develop the Mesonet and share data. The presence of the Mesonet, which will remain in place after the 5-year CAREER period, will encourage other institutions to bring their mobile observing platforms to the Mobile Bay area in the event of a land falling hurricane.

飓风登陆时的特征已被美国天气研究计划（USWRP）确定为一个值得加强研究的关键领域。关注登陆问题的原因是：i)飓风在登陆时的演变是一个高度复杂和破坏性的过程，人们对其知之甚少，难以预测；沿海人口继续快速增长。因此，这个CAREER项目将把重点放在飓风登陆的研究和教育两方面。为了改进飓风登陆预报，首先需要更好地了解飓风登陆的过程。该项目将重点研究登陆时降雨和风场的演变，以响应地表蒸发、表面粗糙度、地形高程、海岸线配置、飓风大小和强度以及飓风穿过海岸的角度等物理因素。过去的研究包括观察和模拟案例研究，以及一些简化的、理想化的数值模拟研究。真正的案例研究是复杂的，有无数的过程同时发生，缺乏真实的观察使得孤立它们变得困难。理想化的模型在系统地隔离单个物理因素方面开了个好头，但并不是所有的因素都得到了解决。该项目将通过重复早期的简化实验来填补空白，逐步增加其复杂性，并以在美国墨西哥湾中北部现实的登陆模拟结束。利用先进的中尺度气象模式，可以一次分离出一个重要的物理因素。随着这项工作的进展，研究成果将与大学的沿海天气研究中心、国家气象局和莫比尔县应急管理局共享。此外，主要招收贫困和/或少数族裔学生的当地公立学校和退休社区将被邀请参加美国飓风信息日。他们将了解飓风到底是什么，为什么这些风暴如此难以预测，以及他们当地的大学进行飓风研究，并向学生和公众教授飓风知识。在整个5年期间，气象学本科生将担任研究助理。一个地面观测网，或莫比尔湾Mesonet，将通过以下方式建立：(1)整合现有的地面观测点（其中一些将被升级）；Ii)增加新的地表站点；及iii)包括每月在摩比尔湾测量的海面温度。与现有的65个气象站一样，计划新建的10个气象站中的大多数将位于公立学校校园内，这些学校的学生将参与收集和使用气象数据。收集到的数据可用于一系列当地研究和教育项目。PI将与国家气象局、移动办公室、GLOBE计划等地方机构共同开发Mesonet并共享数据。Mesonet的存在将在5年的CAREER期后继续存在，这将鼓励其他机构在飓风登陆时将其移动观测平台带到莫比尔湾地区。