Integrated Analysis of Freshwater Resources Sustainability in Jordan

这项拟议的努力将侧重于制定一个综合框架，以约旦为示范系统，评估缺水国家的水政策干预措施。约旦是许多干旱地区的代表，在这些地区，未来的自然和社会变化为全国范围内的供水中断奠定了基础。现有的水资源模型忽视了水文和社会经济组成部分之间的关键相互作用，导致缺乏作出长期政策决策所需的全面分析。我们的跨学科团队将开发一种量化的政策评估工具，以探索如何通过优化分配程序、机构重组、补贴/关税、水租赁市场和跨境机构等创新来增强淡水系统的可持续性。我们将构建一个模块化的、基于代理人的水经济学模型，其中每个模块从一个独特的学科获取科学和地方知识，将水文学、农学和社会经济分析综合到一个连贯的分析框架中。这些模块将通过系统组件之间的反馈进行链接。政策评估模型将把对自然现象(地下水-地表水流动、作物产量和土壤/水盐度)的模拟与在机构和用户层面(用水、管理、分配、跨界水和贸易)的人类决策结合起来。我们将根据一套量化的经济和环境指标来评估一系列政策干预措施。除了开发一种新的水政策分析工具外，该项目还旨在为已经耗尽传统供水来源并处于脆弱边缘的供水系统确定创新的政策解决方案。我们将评估与政策解决方案相关的风险和收益分析，并将管理选择传达给利益相关者，他们将被积极征求意见。该项目将进一步为将综合框架部署到全球其他缺水地区奠定基础。

This proposed effort will focus on development of an integrated framework to evaluate water policy interventions in water-stressed countries using Jordan as a model system. Jordan is representative of many arid regions where future natural and social changes set the stage for nationwide water supply failures. Existing water resources models ignore critical interactions between hydrologic and socioeconomic components, resulting in a lack of holistic analysis needed to make long-term policy decisions. Our interdisciplinary team will develop a quantitative policy-evaluation tool to explore ways to enhance the sustainability of freshwater systems through such innovations as optimized allocation procedures, institutional re-structuring, subsidies/tariffs, water-lease markets, and transboundary institutions. We will construct a modular, agent-based hydroeconomic model in which each module captures scientific and local knowledge from a unique discipline synthesizing hydrologic, agronomic, and socioeconomic analysis into a coherent analytical framework. The modules will be linked through feedbacks among system components. The policy-evaluation model will combine simulation of natural phenomena (groundwater-surface water flow, crop yield, and soil / water salinity) with human decision-making at the institutional and user levels (water usage, regulation, allocation, transboundary water, and trade). We will evaluate a wide range of policy interventions based on a set of quantitative economic and environmental metrics. In addition to developing a new tool for water policy analysis, the project aims to identify innovative policy solutions for a water system that has exhausted traditional supply sources and is operating at the vulnerable edge. Our analysis of risks and benefits associated with policy solutions will be assessed, and management options communicated to stakeholders who will be actively solicited for input. The project will further set the groundwork for deploying the integrated framework to other water-stressed regions throughout the globe.