Integrated Analysis of Freshwater Resources Sustainability in Jordan

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This proposed effort will focus on development of an integrated framework to evaluate water policyinterventions in water-stressed countries using Jordan as a model system. Jordan is representative ofmany arid regions where future natural and social changes set the stage for nationwide water supplyfailures. Existing water resources models ignore critical interactions between hydrologic andsocioeconomic components, resulting in a lack of holistic analysis needed to make long-term policydecisions. Our interdisciplinary team will develop a quantitative policy-evaluation tool to explore ways toenhance the sustainability of freshwater systems through such innovations as optimized allocationprocedures, institutional re-structuring, subsidies/tariffs, water-lease markets, and transboundaryinstitutions. We will construct a modular, agent-based hydroeconomic model in which each modulecaptures scientific and local knowledge from a unique discipline synthesizing hydrologic, agronomic, andsocioeconomic analysis into a coherent analytical framework. The modules will be linked throughfeedbacks among system components. The policy-evaluation model will combine simulation of naturalphenomena (groundwater-surface water flow, crop yield, and soil / water salinity) with humandecision-making at the institutional and user levels (water usage, regulation, allocation, transboundarywater, and trade). We will evaluate a wide range of policy interventions based on a set of quantitativeeconomic and environmental metrics. In addition to developing a new tool for water policy analysis, theproject aims to identify innovative policy solutions for a water system that has exhausted traditionalsupply sources and is operating at the vulnerable edge. Our analysis of risks and benefits associatedwith policy solutions will be assessed, and management options communicated to stakeholders who willbe actively solicited for input. The project will further set the groundwork for deploying the integratedframework to other water-stressed regions throughout the globe.