The New Normal: Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy Post-Great Recession

摘要随着时间的推移，利率已经下降，因此未来政策利率的下限可能会更频繁地绑定。前瞻性指引和量化宽松等非常规货币政策工具是在大衰退后使用的，它们将在未来的衰退中成为更常见的政策工具。这个项目将解决目前影响美国和其他发达经济体的低利率环境下货币政策的研究问题。研究将聚焦于短期政策利率作为唯一货币政策工具的调整是不够的。第一个项目将受约束的金融中介纳入标准的宏观经济框架，系统地研究不同的非常规政策工具，如量化宽松(QE)、前瞻性指引和负利率政策。通过探索量化宽松等非常规政策与常规利率政策的替代性，该项目探索了名义利率零下限的总体成本。第二个项目通过特别关注政府支出乘数的大小及其对零下限的依赖，来考察受限的金融中介机构对财政政策的影响。第三个项目纳入了利率期限结构的现实模型，以研究某些货币政策工具，如期限延长计划。最后一个项目在第一个项目制定的框架内考虑了家庭的异质性和不完全市场。该项目研究量化宽松等非常规货币政策的分配影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractInterest rates have declined through time such that the lower bound on policy rates is likely to bind more frequently in the future. Unconventional monetary policy tools such as forward guidance and quantitative easing, which were those deployed in the wake of the Great Recession, will become more common policy tools in future recessions. This project will address research questions on monetary policy in the low interest rate environment currently affecting the US and other developed economies. The research will focus on the notion that the adjustment of short-term policy rates is insufficient as the only monetary policy instrument.The first project incorporates constrained financial intermediaries into a standard macroeconomic framework to systematically study different unconventional policy tools such as quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and negative interest rate policy. By exploring the substitutability of unconventional policies such as QE with conventional interest rate policy, the project explores overall cost of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. The second project looks at the implications of constrained financial intermediaries on fiscal policy by specifically focusing on the magnitude of the government spending multiplier and its dependence on the zero lower bound. The third project incorporates a realistic model of the term structure of interest rates so as to study certain monetary policy tools such as the maturity extension program. The final project considers household heterogeneity and incomplete markets within the framework developed in the first project. This project studies the distributional implications of unconventional monetary policies such as QE.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.