Collaborative Research: P2C2--Multi-Century Perspectives on Current and Future Flow in the Lower Missouri River Basin

该项目旨在通过整合精选的量测记录、模拟水文学和几种互补的树状年表重建方法，提供密苏里河下游(LMR)流域过去径流的高质量、长期记录，这些方法侧重于水年和季节性径流的产生，以及改进对极端的捕获。该项目致力于：(1)结合量测数据、自然流量估计和模拟水文学来开发径流校准系列；(2)为LMR中的关键子流域量具生成径流重建，以及流域径流的空间重建；(3)在更广泛的北美范围内评估多世纪天气气候对LMR流量的控制；在过去的几十年里，极端事件(洪水和干旱)在LMR中很常见，但由于缺乏不受人为影响的长期径流记录，因此理解长期水文气候变率影响径流的背景有限。LMR流域是美国仅存的少数几个缺乏径流重建的主要水系之一，这在很大程度上是因为缺乏用于流量校准的可靠仪器数据。潜在的更广泛的影响(B.I.)包括提高对密苏里河下游流域干旱/洪水/暴雨的基线了解，以及包括水资源管理人员在内的各级利益相关者的参与。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to provide high-quality, long-term records of past streamflow in the Lower Missouri River (LMR) basin by integrating select gage records, modeled hydrology, and several complementary dendrochronology reconstruction approaches focusing on water-year and seasonal generation of runoff and the improved capture of extremes. This project seeks to: (1) incorporate gage data, estimates of natural flow, and modeled hydrology to develop streamflow calibration series; (2) generate reconstructions of streamflow for key sub-basin gages in the LMR, along with spatial reconstructions of runoff for the basin; (3) evaluate multi-century synoptic climate controls on LMR flow within a broader North American context; and (4) analyze the impact of warming temperatures on future flow patterns.Extreme events (floods and droughts) have been common in the LMR over the past several decades, but the context for understanding the long-term hydroclimate variability impacting flow is limited due to a paucity of long streamflow records that are unaffected by human modification. The LMR basin is one of the few remaining major river systems in the U.S. lacking streamflow reconstructions in large part due to the scarcity of reliable instrumental data for flow calibrationThe potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include an improved baseline understanding of droughts/floods/pluvials in the Lower Missouri River Basin and the involvement of stakeholders at all levels including water resource managers.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.