Collaborative Research: P2C2--Multi-Century Perspectives on Current and Future Flow in the Lower Missouri River Basin

该项目旨在通过整合精选的测量记录、模拟水文学和几种互补的树木年代学重建方法，提供密苏里河下游（LMR）流域过去流量的高质量长期记录，这些方法侧重于水年和季节径流的产生以及改进的极端捕获。该项目旨在：(1)结合测量数据、自然流量估计和模拟水文来开发溪流流量校准系列；(2)生成LMR中关键子流域尺度的流量重建，以及流域径流的空间重建；(3)在更广泛的北美背景下评估多世纪天气气候对LMR流的控制；(4)分析气候变暖对未来降水模式的影响。在过去的几十年里，极端事件（洪水和干旱）在LMR中很常见，但由于缺乏不受人类活动影响的长期河流流量记录，理解长期水文气候变率影响流量的背景是有限的。LMR流域是美国为数不多的缺乏流量重建的主要河流系统之一，这在很大程度上是由于缺乏可靠的流量校准仪器数据。潜在的更广泛的影响（bi）包括提高对密苏里河下游流域干旱/洪水/雨的基线认识，以及包括水资源管理者在内的各级利益相关者的参与。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to provide high-quality, long-term records of past streamflow in the Lower Missouri River (LMR) basin by integrating select gage records, modeled hydrology, and several complementary dendrochronology reconstruction approaches focusing on water-year and seasonal generation of runoff and the improved capture of extremes. This project seeks to: (1) incorporate gage data, estimates of natural flow, and modeled hydrology to develop streamflow calibration series; (2) generate reconstructions of streamflow for key sub-basin gages in the LMR, along with spatial reconstructions of runoff for the basin; (3) evaluate multi-century synoptic climate controls on LMR flow within a broader North American context; and (4) analyze the impact of warming temperatures on future flow patterns.Extreme events (floods and droughts) have been common in the LMR over the past several decades, but the context for understanding the long-term hydroclimate variability impacting flow is limited due to a paucity of long streamflow records that are unaffected by human modification. The LMR basin is one of the few remaining major river systems in the U.S. lacking streamflow reconstructions in large part due to the scarcity of reliable instrumental data for flow calibrationThe potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include an improved baseline understanding of droughts/floods/pluvials in the Lower Missouri River Basin and the involvement of stakeholders at all levels including water resource managers.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.