Collaborative Research: Climate, Changing Abundance and Species Interactions of Marine Birds and Mammals at South Georgia in Winter

第一部分：非技术描述：南极半岛西部和斯科舍海冬季的海洋变暖是世界上最高的。这个项目将量化气候变暖对海鸟的影响。研究区域位于南大西洋的南乔治亚岛，那里有世界上最大、最多样化的海鸟群落。探测和理解物理和生物如何相互作用，给海鸟带来积极或消极的种群变化，长期以来一直是科学家们面临的挑战。该项目团队假设：1)近30年来，由于海洋变暖，冷水海鸟种类减少，而温水海鸟种类增加；2)所有物种都随着海洋变暖而减少，影响了它们相互作用的方式，从而降低了它们生存的机会；3)多种环境变量和模型可以预测物种分布。为了收集目前的数据与1985年、1991年和1993年的观测结果进行比较，计划在南部冬季进行两次巡航；研究人员包括三名在海鸟、浮游生物和海洋学取样方面经验丰富的首席研究员，包括两名研究生和五名本科生。模型将根据巡航数据和过去30年经历的环境变化来开发。这项研究将提高我们对海鸟和海洋哺乳动物冬季生态的理解，以及它们如何与环境相互作用。这个项目有利于美国国家科学基金会扩大南极系统、生物群和过程的基础知识的目标。该项目将提供一个特殊的机会，通过带领5名学生参与研究巡航，向本科生教授极地技能。为了进一步增加极地扫盲培训和教育影响，更广泛的影响包括制作一部教育纪录片，并将与实地调查相结合，以评估公众对气候变化的看法。第二部分：技术说明：南极半岛西部和斯科舍海冬季的海洋变暖是世界上最高的。基于之前的工作，该项目的主要研究者想要验证一个假设，即变暖会减少南大西洋南乔治亚地区的海鸟数量和物种关联。该建议的一个主要前提是，由于海洋环境的变化，海鸟群落的结构也发生了变化，并且可能以某种方式减少了积极互动的互利动态，从而对适应性和种群趋势产生后续影响。这项研究有三个主要目标：1)确定在1985年、1991年和1993年冬季在南乔治亚岛两端取样时磷虾、鸟类和哺乳动物丰度的变化；2)确定在寻找猎物时相互受益的物种配对，并量化这种关系自1985年以来的变化；3)根据预测的未来气候变化，预测这些物种配对的变化将如何继续。该方法的新颖之处在于其概念模型，即物种间的联系告诉鸟类食物的可获得性，如果鸟类丰度减少，这种联系就会减少，因此变暖可能会降低整体种群的适应性。这些研究对于确定海鸟的行为模式是否会调节它们对气候变化的反应至关重要。该项目将带5名学生参加游轮活动，为本科生提供特殊的教育机会。为了进一步增加极地扫盲培训和教育影响，更广泛的影响包括制作一部教育纪录片，并将与实地调查相结合，以评估公众对气候变化的看法。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Part I: Non-technical description: Ocean warming in the western Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea in winter is among the highest worldwide. This project will quantify the impact of the climate warming on seabirds. The study area is in South Georgia in the South Atlantic with the largest and most diverse seabird colonies in the world. Detecting and understanding how physics and biology interact to bring positive or negative population changes to seabirds has long challenged scientists. The team in this project hypothesizes that 1) Cold water seabird species decline while warm water species increase due to ocean warming observed in the last 30 years; 2) All species decrease with ocean warming, affecting how they interact with each other and in doing so, decreasing their chances of survival; and 3) Species profiles can be predicted using multiple environmental variables and models. To collect present-day data to compare with observations done in 1985, 1991 and 1993, 2 cruises are planned in the austral winter; the personnel will include the three Principal Investigators, all experienced with sampling of seabirds, plankton and oceanography, with 2 graduate and 5 undergraduate students. Models will be developed based on the cruise data and the environmental change experienced in the last 30 years. The research will improve our understanding of seabird and marine mammal winter ecology, and how they interact with the environment. This project benefits NSF's goals to expand the fundamental knowledge of Antarctic systems, biota, and processes. The project will provide an exceptional opportunity to teach polar field skills to undergraduates by bringing 5 students to engage in the research cruises. To further increase polar literacy training and educational impacts, broader impacts include the production of an educational documentary that will be coupled to field surveys to assess public perceptions about climate change. Part II: Technical description: Ocean warming in the western Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea in winter is among the highest worldwide. Based on previous work, the Principal Investigators in this project want to test the hypothesis that warming would have decreased seabird abundance and species associations in the South Georgia region of the South Atlantic. A main premise of this proposal is that because of marine environmental change, the structure of the seabird communities has also changed, and potentially in a manner that has diminished the mutually beneficial dynamics of positive interactions, with subsequent consequences to fitness and population trends. The study is structured by 3 main objectives: 1) identify changes in krill, bird and mammal abundance that have occurred from previous sampling off both ends of South Georgia during winter in 1985, 1991 and 1993, 2) identify pairings of species that benefit each other in searching for prey, and quantify how such relationships have changed since 1985, and 3) make predictions about how these changes in species pairing might continue given predicted future changes in climate. The novelty of the approach is the conceptual model that inter-species associations inform birds of food availability and that the associations decrease if bird abundance decreases, thus warming could decrease overall population fitness. These studies will be essential to establish if behavioral patterns in seabird modulate their response to climate change. The project will provide exceptional educational opportunity to undergraduates by bringing 5 students to participate on the cruises. To further increase polar literacy training and educational impacts, broader impacts include the production of an educational documentary that will be coupled to field surveys to assess public perceptions about climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.