Doctoral Dissertation Research:Constructive and Destructive Exit: Understanding Treaty Withdrawal

21世纪最大的挑战是跨国的，包括环境、移民、流行病、不平等和金融腐败。因此，必须更好地了解使国际合作成为可能和危及国际合作的因素。对条约退出的研究将使我们进一步了解为什么国际法对某些国家的行为的影响比对其他国家的影响更大，以及设计如何影响条约的持久性。首先，通过揭示条约设计对退出的影响，本项目将帮助未来的政策制定者在设计和谈判协议时考虑退出风险。其次，这项研究将有助于告知致力于全球治理的政策制定者，他们应该多么关注退出国际协议。最后，本研究将有助于政策制定者了解导致退出的条件和退出的影响。尽管有大量关于条约承诺和遵守的文献，但我们对条约退出知之甚少。本项目探讨了条约生命周期中缺失的一个阶段，并阐明了各国国际法力度的差异。为了更好地理解条约退出的历史模式及其促成因素，本项目结合了对过去一百年来条约退出的大n分析、对条约设计的文本即数据监督机器学习分析和精英访谈。案例包括退出国际刑事法院和国际劳工组织的几项公约，这些公约试图通过限制妇女在工作场所的参与来保护妇女，美国退出《中程核力量条约》和《巴黎协定》。所得数据将对其他对国际合作或条约之间或不同时期的设计差异感兴趣的研究人员有用，并可能有助于进一步研究条约设计与有效性之间的关系。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The greatest challenges of the 21st century are cross-national, including the environment, migration, epidemics, inequality, and financial corruption. As a result, it is critical to better understand the factors that enable and imperil international cooperation. The study of treaty exit will grant us additional purchase on why international law influences the behavior of some countries more than others and how design influences treaty durability. First, by shedding light on the effect of treaty design on exit, this project will help future policy makers consider exit risk when designing and negotiating agreements. Second, this research will help inform policy makers who are invested in global governance understand how concerned they should be about exit from international agreements. Finally, this research will help policy makers understand the conditions that lead to exit and the effects of exit.Despite a wealth of literature on treaty commitment and compliance, we know very little about treaty exit. This project explores a missing stage in the treaty lifecycle, and illuminates differences in the strength of international law across states. To better understand historic patterns of treaty exit and the factors that contribute to them, this project leverages a combination of large-N analysis of treaty exits over the last hundred years, text-as-data supervised machine learning analysis of treaty design, and elite interviews. Cases include exits from the International Criminal Court, and from several International Labor Organization conventions that seek to protect women through restricting workplace participation, and the U.S. exits from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Paris Agreement. The resulting data will be useful to other researchers interested in international cooperation or in design differences across treaties or over time and may enable further research on the relationship between treaty design and effectiveness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.