Trade and Global Economic Shocks: A Network Perspective

外国经济增长的波动主要通过贸易影响美国经济；随着美国与往往不稳定的新兴市场的贸易增加，这个问题将变得越来越重要。这个研究项目将研究新兴经济体经济活动的波动如何影响美国的总体经济活动、就业、收入和收入分配。本研究的重点是新兴经济体的需求冲击，以及新兴国家的这些需求变化影响美国经济活动的机制。以往关于外国经济波动对美国影响的研究主要集中在供给侧；这是为数不多的关注新兴经济体需求波动的研究之一。随着美国在与新兴经济体的贸易中所占份额的增加，其他国家经济活动的波动对美国经济结果的影响将日益重要。研究结果可以帮助美国更好地管理其国际经济关系。本研究项目将使用基于网络的框架来研究新兴经济体的需求冲击对美国经济的商业周期影响以及这些影响发生的机制。该模型是Charney（2014）贸易模型的延伸，用于解释集约边际下的增长。主要的创新是引入了贸易增长，以便更深入地了解贸易和增长动态如何推动美国经济波动。该模型使用来自部门级投入产出表、世界投入产出数据库、企业级贸易数据和产品级汇总贸易数据的数据进行估算。未来，随着美国与新兴经济体贸易份额的增加，新兴经济体需求冲击引发美国商业周期的可能性将变得非常重要。这一研究结果可以帮助美国更好地管理其国际经济关系。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Fluctuations in economic growth in foreign countries affect the U.S. economy primarily through trade; this issue will become increasingly important as US trade with emerging markets, which tend to be volatile, increases. This research project will study how fluctuations in economic activities in emerging economies affect total economic activity, employment, incomes, and distribution of income in the United States. The focus of this research is on demand shocks from emerging economies, and the mechanisms through which these demand changes in emerging countries affect economic activities in the US. Previous studies of the effects of economic fluctuations in foreign countries on the US have focused on supply side; this is one of the few studies that focuses on fluctuations in demand in emerging economies. As the US’s share of trade with emerging economies increase, fluctuations in economic activities in other countries will increasingly become important in US economic outcomes. Th results of this research can help the US better manage its international economic relationships.This research project will use a network based framework to investigate the business cycle effects of demand shocks in emerging economies on the US economy and the mechanisms through which these effects occur. The model is an extension of Charney’s (2014) trade model to explain growth at the intensive margin. The main innovation is to introduction of trade growth in order to provide much richer insights into how economic fluctuations in the US may be driven by trade and growth dynamics. The model is estimated using data from sector-level input output tables, World Input-Output Database, firm level trade data and product level aggregate trade data. The possibility of US business cycles emanating from demand shocks in emerging economies will become important in the future as the share of US trade with these countries increases. The results of this research can help the US better manage its international economic relationships.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.