Collaborative Research: Hazard Events, Risk Perception, and Public Support for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Americas: a 17-Country Study

该项目极大地提高了学者和实践者对政府如何成功实施减少灾害风险(DRR)政策的理解--这些政策对于培育和维持更具弹性的社区至关重要。具体地说，它创造了关于增加或减少公众对建筑法规和建筑法规等关键DRR政策支持的因素和条件的新知识。佛罗里达国际大学(FIU)和范德比尔特大学(Vanderbilt University)的研究人员将收集和分析来自17个国家(16个拉丁美洲和加勒比(LAC)国家和美国)的民意数据。关于重大危险事件的经验、对未来风险的看法，以及--至关重要的--对减少灾害风险政策的支持。研究人员还将密切关注人们在经历灾难后是否以及如何改变观点，以及这种经历可能采取的不同形式。该项目促进了对减少灾害风险政策实施的有效性和社会可持续性的科学理解，创建了一个可供世界各地的灾害研究人员和政策制定者使用的开放式数据库。它还促进了跨学术领域的研究界合作，并将有助于在美国创造一支更多样化、更具全球竞争力的STEM劳动力队伍。也许最重要的是，这项研究有助于支持美国(和国外)加强政策和计划以减少灾害造成的人员和经济损失的战略努力。它还将符合美国的外交政策利益，包括经济、人道主义和安全利益，因为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的危险事件影响到美国的投资、贸易、旅行、对外援助、移民流动和模式，最终影响到国家安全。此外，该项目将增加公众对科学技术的参与和欣赏，因为研究人员将传播有关灾害事件经历、公众对降低风险的支持以及实现增强建筑物生存能力和安全性的“机会之窗”的关键发现的面向公众的报告。该项目的研究将分两个阶段进行。在第一阶段，项目组将通过放置在范德比尔特大学备受推崇的2021年浪潮的美国晴雨表调查上的DRR问题模块，收集关于17个国家的风险认知、对降低风险的态度以及对DRR政策和执行的支持的个人层面的数据。FIU和Vanderbilt的研究人员使用多水平混合效应回归分析(并控制各种个人和背景变量)，将检验关于三组因素对支持DRR政策和做法的影响的假设：(1)灾害风险(对灾害事件的可能性、严重性和类型的感知；对风险作为个人或总体的感知；国家和地方灾害风险概况)；(2)灾害经历(作为个人/家庭、社区或国家)；以及(3)治理(对政府的信任；对DRR的有效性/廉正的感知；个人对腐败的体验；国家层面的腐败)。虽然这些多国成果本身是有价值的，但它们也是了解灾难本身可能如何影响公众对减少灾害风险的支持的基线。在第二阶段，研究小组将选择一个受重大灾害事件影响的拉丁美洲和加勒比国家，并深入了解经历此类事件的影响：“重点事件”等灾害是否会改变公众舆论，并有助于为改进减少灾害风险政策及其实施打开“机会之窗”。该小组将部署会后调查，并比较会前和会后的民意；评估任何变化的程度和持续时间；并在个人层面上分析随着时间的推移变化的原因。项目结果将为政府、私营部门、非政府组织和其他利益攸关方何时以及如何改进拯救生命和保护财产的DRR政策提供关键的新见解。最后，这项研究将促进几个学术领域的知识，包括公共舆论、公共政策、风险社会心理学和灾害的多学科研究。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project greatly improves scholars’ and practitioners’ understanding of how governments can successfully implement disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies—policies that are fundamental to fostering and sustaining more resilient communities. Specifically, it creates new knowledge about the factors and conditions that increase or decrease public support for such key DRR policies as building codes and construction regulations. Researchers at Florida International University (FIU) and Vanderbilt University will collect and analyze public opinion data from 17 countries (16 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and the U.S.) on experiences with major hazard events, perceptions of future risk, and—crucially—support for DRR policies. Researchers will also look closely at whether and how people’s views change after experiencing a disaster, and the different forms that such experiences may take. The project advances scientific understanding of the efficacy and social sustainability of DRR policy implementation, creating an open-access database available to disaster researchers and policymakers everywhere. It also promotes research community cooperation across academic disciplines and will contribute to creating, in the U.S., a more diverse and globally competitive STEM workforce. Perhaps most importantly, this research helps support strategic efforts in the U.S. (and abroad) to strengthen policies and programs to reduce human and economic losses from disasters. It will also serve U.S. foreign policy interests—including economic, humanitarian and security interests— since hazard events in Latin America and the Caribbean affect U.S. investment, trade, travel, foreign assistance, immigration flows and patterns, and, ultimately, national security. Furthermore, this project will increase public engagement with and appreciation of science and technology, as researchers will disseminate public-facing reports on key findings about hazard event experiences, public support for risk reduction, and “windows of opportunity” for achieving enhanced building survivability and safety. Research for this project will proceed in two phases. In Phase 1, the project team will collect individual-level data on risk perception, attitudes towards risk reduction, and support for DRR policies and enforcement in the 17 countries via a module of DRR questions placed on the 2021wave of Vanderbilt University’s highly-regarded AmericasBarometer survey. Using multi-level mixed-effects regression-style analysis (and controlling for a variety of individual and contextual variables), researchers at FIU and Vanderbilt will test hypotheses on the effects of three sets of factors on support for DRR policies and practices: (1) Disaster risk (perception of the likelihood, severity, and type of hazard events; perception of risk as individual or general; national and local hazard risk profiles); (2) Experience with disasters (as an individual/family, community, or nation); and (3) Governance (trust in government; perceptions of effectiveness / integrity in DRR; personal experience with corruption; national levels of corruption). While these multi-country results are valuable on their own, they also serve as a baseline for understanding how disasters themselves might shape public support for DRR. In Phase 2, the research team will select one LAC country affected by a major hazard event and home in on the impact of experiencing such events: whether disasters as “focusing events” shift public opinion and help open “windows of opportunity” for improving DRR policies and their implementation. The team will deploy post-event surveys and compare pre- vs. post-event public opinion; assess the extent and duration of any changes; and analyze causes of change over time at the individual level. Project findings will provide critical new insights into when and how governments, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders could improve DRR policies that save lives and protect property. Finally, this research will advance knowledge in several fields of scholarship, including public opinion, public policy, the social psychology of risk, and the multidisciplinary study of disasters.This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.