Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Causes and Representative Consequences of Invalid Voting

该项目调查无效投票的原因，这是民主发展的一个重要问题。在哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和秘鲁最近的选举中，超过五分之一的选民去了投票站，拿到了选票，但没有投票给国会候选人。在不同程度上，世界各地的公民在投票后选择不行使他们最基本的民主权利，而是投出空白或标记错误的选票。然而，尽管这种现象经常发生，但很少有人知道是谁投了这些“无效”或“无效”的票，以及为什么投了这些票。该项目评估了整个拉丁美洲地区故意无效投票的潜在原因，并使用混合方法检查了政治家对这种做法的反应。首先，利用美国晴雨表和选举制度比较研究收集的跨国公民调查数据，该项目评估了个人层面对无效投票行为的解释。具体来说，我们发现低政治知识、对政治不满和无效投票之间的关系是支持的。第二组分析纳入了一个原始数据集，以解决精英应对无效投票的策略问题。特别是，该分析检验了一个假设，即在制定未来政党竞争战略时，政党将高无效投票率视为选举机会的标志，因此选择在无效投票率高的地方参加竞争。第三组分析包括对秘鲁现任政治家、政治候选人和党派战略家的原始采访数据的收集。该项目的这一部分评估了精英和公民之间的互动，通过对来自亚国家地区的候选人和现任立法者的半结构化访谈进行分析，这些地区具有不同的历史无效投票率：阿雷基帕、卡哈马卡和皮乌拉。为了理解无效投票对政治代表的影响，该项目将确定政治精英是否以及在多大程度上关注无效投票，并且，鉴于这种关注，精英是否以及如何在竞选期间和上任后对无效选民做出反应。智力优势：虽然以前的学者已经确定了故意无效投票的一些潜在原因，但迄今为止，学者们还没有在他们的论点或经验测试中孤立故意无效投票，这些测试在很大程度上是在总体水平上进行的。在学术上，本项目的贡献是双重的：首先，它提供了一个以故意无效投票为重点的综合理论框架，并使用跨国和单案例调查和访谈数据在个人层面检验了相关的理论命题。其次，该项目超越了无效投票的原因，建立并测试了一种新的精英反应理论。衡量政治精英在选举期间和上任后如何评估和回应通常相当大的无效选民群体，为评估精英对其选民和更广泛公众的反应提供了一个新的维度。更广泛的影响：本项目重点关注拉丁美洲地区，该地区近年来民主衰退日益普遍。故意无效投票的高比率可能表明该地区民主国家的公民普遍不满。长期以来，美国的外交政策一直把促进民主作为一个明确的目标，目的是创造一个更安全的世界。这个项目通过衡量不满情绪在多大程度上激发了无效投票，以及产生了什么样的政治影响，来推进同样的目标。此外，这项研究将与当地研究组织（IEP）合作进行，使用当地大学生作为研究助理。研究助理将学习特定的技能并参与学术研究。结果将通过会议发言和论文出版物向更广泛的学术界传播；结果也将分发给经济政策研究所和秘鲁选举当局。因此，该项目发展了当地的人力资本，并加强了与以政治研究和决策为重点的地方机构的跨国联系。

The project investigates the causes of invalid voting, an important issue for democratic development. In recent elections in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, more than one out of every five voters went to the polls, received a ballot, but did not vote for a congressional candidate. To varying degrees around the world, citizens turn out to vote and then choose not to exercise their most basic democratic right, instead casting blank or incorrectly marked ballots. Yet, despite the frequency of this phenomenon, little is known about who casts these "null" or "invalid" votes, and why. This project assesses potential causes of intentional invalid voting across the Latin American region and, also, examines politician responsiveness to this practice using a mixed methods approach. First, using cross-national survey data of citizens collected by the AmericasBarometer and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, the project assesses individual-level explanations of invalid voting behavior. Specifically, support is found for the proposed relationships between low political knowledge, dissatisfaction with politics, and invalid voting. A second series of analyses incorporates an original dataset to address questions of elite strategy in response to invalid voting. In particular, this analysis tests the hypothesis that, in strategizing about future party competition, parties view high rates of invalid voting as a sign of electoral opportunity, and therefore choose to enter competition where rates of invalid voting are high. The third set of analyses involves the collection of original interview data with sitting politicians, political candidates, and partisan strategists in Peru. This part of the project assesses the interaction between elites and citizens, through the analysis of semi-structured interviews with candidates and sitting legislators from subnational regions with varied historical rates of invalid voting: Arequipa, Cajamarca, and Piura. To understand the implications of invalid voting for political representation, the project will determine whether and to what extent political elites are concerned about invalid voting, and, given this concern, whether and how elites respond to invalid voters both on the campaign trail and once in office.Intellectual Merit: While previous scholarship has identified some potential causes of intentional invalid voting, scholars to date have not isolated intentional null voting in their arguments or in their empirical tests, which have been conducted in large part at the aggregate level. Academically, this project's contribution is twofold: First, it offers a comprehensive theoretical framework focused on intentional invalid voting, and tests the related theoretical propositions at the individual level using cross-national and single-case survey and interview data. Second, the project extends beyond the causes of invalid voting to build and test a new theory of elite response. Measuring how political elites evaluate and respond to often-sizeable groups of null voters, both during the electoral period and once in office, provides a new dimension on which to assess elites' responsiveness to their constituents, and to the broader public.Broader Impacts: This project focuses on the Latin American region, where democratic recessions have become increasingly common in recent years. High rates of intentional invalid voting could suggest widespread citizen discontent in the democracies of this region. U.S. foreign policy has long made democracy-promotion an explicit goal, with the objective of creating a more secure world. This project advances the same goals by gauging the extent to which dissatisfaction motivates invalid voting, and to what political effect. Additionally, this study will take place in affiliation with a local research organization (IEP), using local university students as research assistants. Research assistants will learn specific skills and participate in academic research. Results will be disseminated to the broader academic community through conference presentations and paper publications; results will also be disseminated to the IEP and to Peru's electoral authorities. This project thus develops local human capital, and strengthens cross-national ties with local institutions focused on political research and policy-making.