RAPID: Collaborative Research: The Political Costs of Natural Disasters: Democratic Support, Authoritarian Attitudes, and Blame Attribution after Chile's 2010 Earthquake

RAPID：合作研究：自然灾害的政治成本：2010 年智利地震后的民主支持、独裁态度和指责归因

• 批准号: 1036414
• 负责人: Elizabeth Zechmeister
• 金额: $ 4.11万
• 依托单位: Vanderbilt University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-15 至 2011-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1036414&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Collaborative; Research; Political; Costs

On February 27, 2010, Chile was rocked by an earthquake registering 8.8 on the Richter scale, followed by a tsunami that ravaged the coast. While the capital, Santiago, experienced comparatively little damage, population centers closer to the epicenter, such as Concepción and Talca, as well as villages and towns along Chile's vast coastline, were devastated. Similar to concerns brought up in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, these horrific events raise questions about the political aftershocks of the Chilean state's slow and fumbled response and the ensuing humanitarian crisis. This project investigates the effects of the recent personal- and community-level damage on Chileans' political perceptions and attitudes. Conditions of crisis affect politics, but the principal investigators argue that the breadth and depth of these costs to the system can be particularly severe in less established democracies where support for democratic values and the system itself is less entrenched. Drawing on extant literature, the researchers hypothesize that, as crisis-affected individuals cope they will express attitudes that are less favorable toward the incumbent, but in newer democracies like Chile, also democratic institutions. At the same time, the PIs expect blame attribution will differ across individuals and affect responses toward the system. Further, the PIs argue that crisis-affected individuals will display lower levels of trust and tolerance. To assess these expectations and uncover the ways in which the earthquake in Chile has affected public opinion and democratic attitudes, this project adds an oversample and a battery of questions to the AmericasBarometer survey (conducted by Vanderbilt University's Latin American Public Opinion Project [LAPOP] in April 2010) that tap perceived personal and community damage and blame across key state actors and institutions (authoritarian attitudes are already on the questionnaire). In addition, the researchers add a geo-tagging feature, principally through GPS units, to the interview process, which will allow them to develop a dataset that includes contextual, objective data on damage to the area proximate to each interview. Finally, the PIs make use of both multi-level models and matching techniques (along with the 2008 AmericasBarometer survey of Chile) to assess variation in public opinion across those who were affected by the earthquake and those who were either less affected and/or not affected. The project makes several contributions. First, current knowledge of the political fallout of natural disasters in countries with less firmly entrenched democratic institutions is quite thin. Extant studies indicate that crisis conditions in long-standing democracies are often accompanied by shifts in attitudes and dispositions that can influence how citizens behave towards elected officials, the political system, and their fellow citizens. The political and social stakes are even higher in the context of new democracies such as Chile, where public support for democracy is strikingly ambivalent. This research will contribute to a better understanding of the interaction between natural disasters and democracy. Second, the data, along with all AmericasBarometer 2010 data, will be made accessible in numerous forms, including LAPOP's free online interactive website, by the end of 2010. Third, the use of GPS units to geo-tag interviews, and the resulting analyses, will provide a foundation for similar future research, such as a project in Haiti in 2011.

2010年2月27日，智利发生里氏8.8级地震，随后海啸肆虐海岸。虽然首都圣地亚哥受到的破坏相对较小，但离震中较近的人口中心，如康塞普西翁和塔尔卡，以及智利沿着广阔海岸线的村庄和城镇，都遭到了破坏。与2005年卡特里娜飓风之后引起的担忧类似，这些可怕的事件引发了人们对智利政府缓慢而笨拙的反应以及随之而来的人道主义危机的政治余震的质疑。该项目调查最近个人和社区一级的损害对智利人的政治观念和态度的影响。危机的条件影响政治，但主要研究人员认为，这些成本的广度和深度，系统可以在不太成熟的民主国家，对民主价值观和制度本身的支持不太牢固，特别严重。 根据现存的文献，研究人员假设，当受危机影响的个人科普危机时，他们会表达对现任者不太有利的态度，但在智利等新的民主国家，也是民主机构。 与此同时，PI预计责备归因会因个体而异，并影响对系统的反应。 此外，PI认为，受危机影响的个人将表现出较低的信任和容忍度。 为了评估这些期望并揭示智利地震对公众舆论和民主态度的影响，该项目为AmericasBarometer调查增加了一个过度抽样和一系列问题（由范德比尔特大学拉丁美洲民意项目[LAPOP]于2010年4月进行），该项目在关键的国家行为者和机构中挖掘感知到的个人和社区损害以及指责（专制态度已经在调查问卷上了）。 此外，研究人员还在访谈过程中增加了一个地理标记功能，主要是通过GPS装置，这将使他们能够开发一个数据集，其中包括每次访谈附近地区受损的背景客观数据。 最后，PI利用多层次模型和匹配技术（沿着2008年AmericasBarometer对智利的调查）来评估受地震影响的人和受影响较小和/或未受影响的人的民意变化。该项目作出了几项贡献。 首先，目前对自然灾害在民主制度不那么牢固的国家的政治影响的了解相当薄弱。 现有的研究表明，在历史悠久的民主国家中，危机状况往往伴随着态度和倾向的转变，这可能影响公民对民选官员、政治制度和同胞的行为。在智利这样的新兴民主国家，政治和社会风险甚至更高，那里的公众对民主的支持非常矛盾。这项研究将有助于更好地了解自然灾害与民主之间的相互作用。第二，到2010年底，将以多种形式，包括LAPOP的免费在线互动网站，提供这些数据，沿着《2010年美国晴雨表》的所有数据。第三，使用全球定位系统对访谈进行地理标记，并进行分析，这将为今后类似的研究奠定基础，例如2011年在海地开展的一个项目。