How Do Fluctuations in Summer Temperature Affect Monsoonal Events?

该项目将记录近千年来印度夏季风的强度是如何变化的，并研究印度夏季风的变化是如何与夏季温度的波动联系起来的。这一知识对于提高我们对人口密集、农业依赖地区降水变化驱动机制的理解至关重要。该项目产生的降水数据的定量记录将用于改进模拟未来降水条件的气候模式，从而帮助社会更好地预测与预测的气候变化相关的潜在影响。该项目将扩大本科生和研究生对实地和实验室地球科学的参与，通过训练有素的地球科学家推进STEM劳动力。这个跨学科项目将加强国内和国际环境科学家之间的合作。印度夏季风的历史仪器记录太短，不足以充分记录印度夏季风强度的长期变化的全部范围。对印度夏季风长期和突然波动的更长的记录将提供对季风系统行为的深入了解。这些信息将用于提高现有模式的预测能力，以模拟夏季季风降水对正在进行的和预估的环境变率的潜在响应。从湖泊中恢复的沉积物岩心的生物、化学和物理性质将被用来确定降水是否与过去的夏季温度有关，以及青铜时代定居点的广泛废弃是否与短暂的极端干旱期相对应。这个项目将大大有助于我们理解环境系统平均状态的变化如何影响全球季风。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will document how the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon has varied over recent millennia and investigate how variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon are linked to fluctuations in summer temperature. This knowledge is crucial to improving our understanding of the mechanisms driving precipitation variability in a highly populous, agriculturally-dependent region. The quantitative records of precipitation data produced by this project will be used to refine climate models simulating future precipitation conditions and thereby, help society to better anticipate the potential impacts associated with projected climate change. This project will broaden participation of undergraduate and graduate students in field and laboratory-based geosciences, advancing the STEM workforce with well-trained geoscientists. This interdisciplinary project will strengthen collaborations between environmental scientists both nationally and internationally. The historical instrumental record for the Indian Summer Monsoon is too short to adequately document the full range of long-term variability in the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Lengthier records of long-term and abrupt fluctuations in the Indian Summer Monsoon will provide insight into the behavior of the monsoon system. This information will be used to improve the predictive abilities of existing models simulating the potential responses of summer monsoon precipitation to on-going and projected environmental variability. The biological, chemical, and physical properties of sediment cores recovered from lakes will be used to determine if precipitation is correlated with summer temperature during the past, and if the widespread abandonment of Bronze Age settlements corresponds to a short-lived interval of extreme aridity. This project will contribute significantly to our understanding of how changes in the mean state of environmental systems can influence the global monsoon.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.