RAPID: Election Result Anomaly Detection for 2020

在我们这个时代，随着金钱和想法在互联网上快速传播，旧观点认为“所有的政治都是本地化的”可能不像过去那样正确。但美国的选举管理仍然顽固地保持着地方性。因此，选举结果由州和地方机构以特殊的格式公布。在国家层面，甚至在几个州，对选举结果的任何研究都需要煞费苦心地汇编不同的格式。这个项目建立了一个系统，可以有效地将来自几个州的选举结果数据集组合成单一格式。此外，该项目实施了各种算法，以快速、广泛地检测和可视化选举结果中的异常情况。该系统将迅速标记2020年11月大选的初步选举结果数据中的重大异常。这一分析将向公众以及候选人、政党和选举管理人员提供。候选人、政党和选举管理人员拥有所需的详细当地知识，以评估他们所在地区的任何特定异常情况是否有合理的解释，或者是否有必要进行进一步调查。在最好的情况下，举行一场值得信赖的选举会带来许多后勤挑战。2020年，除了最近选举技术的变化和公认的网络攻击威胁之外，总统选举年肆虐的流行病也出现了前所未有的复杂情况。该项目将提供选举核查工具箱中的一个重要工具，在选举结果最终认证之前帮助查明异常情况。在确定获胜者之前，候选人和其他感兴趣的团体将能够利用这一分析及时做出决定，决定是挑战还是要求对选举结果进行调查。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In our era, with money and ideas traveling quickly over the internet, the old saw that “all politics is local” may be less true than it used to be. But the administration of elections in the United States remains doggedly local. As a result, election results are published by state and local agencies in idiosyncratic formats. Any study of election results at a national level, or even across several states, requires painstaking assembly of disparate formats. This project builds a system to efficiently assemble election result data sets from several states into a single format. In addition, the project implements a variety of algorithms for fast, broad detection and visualization of anomalies in election results. The system will quickly flag significant anomalies in preliminary election result data from the general election in November 2020. This analysis will be made available publicly and to candidates, parties and election administrators. Candidates, parties and election administrators have the detailed local knowledge required to assess whether any particular anomaly in their district has a legitimate explanation or whether further investigation is appropriate.In the best of times, conducting a trustworthy election poses many logistical challenges. In 2020, in addition to recent changes in election technology and widely acknowledged threats of cyberattack, there is the unprecedented complication of a raging pandemic in a Presidential election year. The project will provide a significant tool in the election verification toolbox by helping to identify anomalies well before election results are finally certified. Candidates and other interested parties will be able to use this analysis to inform timely decisions about whether to challenge or demand investigations into election results – before the determination of winners is set in stone.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.