Forecasting Future Invasions and their Impacts (FFII)

现在人们普遍认为，预防和及早应对是减轻外来入侵物种影响的最佳战略。因此，研究工作必须侧重于预测新入侵地区入侵的可能分布和入侵者的影响。对全球环境变化的考虑显然对这些预测至关重要。同样重要的是，将我们对全球研究的大范围模式的理解与我们对特定社区更精细的规模和更详细的机制的理解结合起来。我们的总体目标是更好地预测入侵的未来及其在全球范围内的影响。对于这些预测，我们将使用侧重于(A)模式、(B)过程、(C)影响和(D)生物入侵的未来的分析。该项目的DFG资助部分也将涵盖所有这些方面，重点是宏观生态分析，使用世界自然保护联盟的100个世界最严重入侵物种名单、全球入侵物种数据库(GISD)中的800个国际生物物种名单和60 000个世界自然保护联盟红色名单物种。我们将对GISD中当前的影响类别进行重新分类，并将新的分类应用于该GISD数据库中的所有国际会计准则。将这两点结合起来，将使我们能够评估《国际生物多样性公约》在全球传播的模式和对世界各地的影响，从而对《国际生物多样性公约》对世界自然保护联盟红色名录数据库中的60,000个物种未来的影响进行全球评估。在这项工作中，我们将受益于访问自然保护联盟红色名录和全球入侵物种数据库，通过与自然保护联盟和ISSG作为特权利益攸关方的密切合作，将这两个数据库连接起来。我们将通过研究更精细的生态群落规模来完成这一方法，使用一个大型而同质的分类学群体--蚁科(蚂蚁)作为动物模型。在这方面，我们将致力于纳入生态因素，以补充我们的生物气候模拟方法，以预测这些物种的未来分布，以及它们对入侵地区可能产生的影响的机制和程度。

It is now widely accepted that prevention and early responses are the best strategies to mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS). Consequently, research efforts must focus on prediction, both of the likely distribution of invasions and of invader impact in newly invaded areas. Accounting for global environmental changes is obviously crucial for these predictions. It is also important to combine our understanding of broad-scale patterns from global studies with our understanding of finer scale and more detailed mechanisms from specific communities. Our overall objectives are to better forecast the future of invasions and their impacts worldwide. For these predictions, we will use analyses focusing on (a) the patterns, (b) the processes, (c) the impacts and (d) the future of biological invasions. The DFG-funded part of the project will also cover all of these aspects, with a focus on macroecological analyses, using the IUCN list of 100 of the World's Worst Invasive Species, the list of the 800 IAS in the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD), and the 60 000 IUCN Red-Listed species. We will re-classify the current impact categories in the GISD and apply the new categorization to all IAS in this GISD database. Combining these two points will permit us to assess patterns in global spread and impact of the IAS worldwide, providing a global assessment of the future impact of IAS on the 60,000 species in the IUCN Red List Database. For this effort, we will benefit from access to both the IUCN Red List and Global Invasive Species Database to interlink the two databases, through a tight collaboration with IUCN and ISSG as privileged stakeholders. We will complete this approach by studying the finer scale of ecological communities, using as an animal model a large and homogeneous taxonomic group, the Formicidae (ants). In this regard, we will aim at incorporating ecological components to complement our bioclimatic modelling approaches to predict the future distribution of these species, as well as the mechanisms and magnitude of their likely impact in invaded areas.