NSF2026: EAGER: Probabilistic Analysis of Converting Marine-Borne Plastics into Usable Fuels

塑料对海洋的污染已经成为一个世界性的主要环境问题。海洋塑料对海洋生物和生态系统构成了新的风险，它们进入食物链后对人类健康的影响在很大程度上是未知的。最近，在世界范围内启动了几个项目，利用船上收集方法收集海洋塑料。船上将海洋塑料转化为有用的产品是一项很有前途的技术，可以解决当前船上收集方法的局限性。在化学、生物工程、环境和运输系统部门的环境工程项目和综合活动办公室的NSF 2026基金项目的支持下，伍斯特理工学院的Kazantzis教授和Timko教授提议探索设计一种船上热液液化（HTL）系统的可行性，该系统可以收集海洋塑料并将其转化为有用的产品，包括石油、天然气或溶剂。为了实现这一目标，研究人员建议首先开发一个建模框架来模拟车载html塑料转换系统的性能。该项目的成功完成将有助于推动下一代技术的设计和实施，以解决全球海洋塑料污染问题，从而造福社会。通过学生教育和培训，以及包括指导一名女博士生在内的公众宣传，将进一步造福社会。每年有480万吨到1270万吨塑料被释放到海洋和海洋生态系统中。水热液化（HTL）是一项很有前途的技术，可以将海洋塑料转化为有用的产品。HTL工艺利用高温高压反应器将塑料分解成单体和/或较小的有机化合物，然后将其与水混合以产生油、气或溶剂。这个EAGER项目的总体目标是探索一种机载系统的设计，该系统能够将淡化水和塑料引入HTL反应器，以产生有用的产品。由于塑料废物的转化尚未商业化，因此开发车载HTL系统是一项雄心勃勃且具有内在风险的任务。因此，pi建议通过将热力学建模（火用分析）与TEA和LCA相结合，开发一种新的概率建模和评估框架，以表征机载塑料转换HTL工艺系统的技术可行性、可持续性概况以及经济可行性前景。为了考虑不确定性和相关的技术风险，研究人员建议使用蒙特卡罗模拟来随机建模并传播模型输入参数中的不确定性来源。这可以使pi生成性能结果区域和风险回报分布概况，而不是对拟议的车载html塑料转换系统的相关性能参数进行单点估计。因此，通过开发新的系统建模框架，该项目的成功完成有可能产生变革性影响，以推进集成的船上收集和反应器系统的设计，这些系统可以捕获海洋塑料并将其转化为有用的产品。支持的项目进一步扩展了前33名NSF 2026 Idea Machine项目之一的概念：再利用，回收，可再生能源。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The pollution of oceans by plastics has become a major environmental problem worldwide. Marine-borne plastics pose new risks to marine life and ecosystems and their impacts on human health are largely unknown as they enter the food chain. Recently, several projects have been initiated worldwide to collect marine plastics using shipboard harvesting approaches. On-board conversion of marine-borne plastics to useful products is a promising technology that could address the limitations of current shipboard harvesting approaches. With support from the Environmental Engineering Program in the Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems and the NSF 2026 Fund Program in the Office of Integrated Activities, Professors Kazantzis and Timko at Worcester Polytechnic Institute propose to explore the feasibility of designing an on-board hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) system that could harvest and convert marine-borne plastics into useful products including oil, gas or solvents. To achieve this goal, the investigators propose to first develop a modeling framework to simulate the performance of an on-board HTL plastic conversion system. The successful completion of this project will benefit society through helping advance the design and implementation of next-generation technologies to address the global problem of marine plastic pollution. Further benefits to society will be achieved through student education and training, and public outreach including the mentoring of a female doctoral student. Every year between 4.8 and 12.7 million tons of plastics are released into oceans and marine ecosystems. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology that could convert marine-borne plastics into useful products. The HTL process utilizes a high-temperature and high-pressure reactor to break down plastics into monomers and/or smaller organic compounds, which are then mixed with water to produce oil, gas or solvents. The overarching goal of this EAGER project is to explore the design of an on-board system with the capability to draw in desalinated water and plastics into a HTL reactor to generate useful products. Because the conversion of plastic wastes is not yet practiced commercially, the development of an on-board HTL system is an ambitious and inherently risky undertaking. Thus, the PIs propose to develop a new probabilistic modeling and assessment framework to characterize the technical feasibility, the sustainability profiles as well as the economic viability prospects of an on-board plastic conversion HTL process system by combining thermodynamic modeling (exergy analysis) with TEA and LCA. To account for the uncertainties and related technology risks, the investigators propose to use Monte Carlo simulations to stochastically model and propagate the sources of uncertainties in the model input parameters. This could enable the PIs to generate performance outcome zones and risk-reward distribution profiles rather than single-point estimates of the relevant performance parameters of the proposed on-board HTL plastic conversion system. Thus, the successful completion of this project has potential for transformative impact through the development a new system-modeling framework to advance the design of integrated shipboard collection and reactor systems that could capture and convert marine-borne plastics into useful products.The supported project further expands the concept from one of the top 33 NSF 2026 Idea Machine entries: Repurposing, Recycling, Renewable Energy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.