Collaborative Research: Stakeholder Interdependencies in Post-Disaster Relocation under High Uncertainty

灾难的后果往往导致个人家庭和企业需要搬迁到危险程度较低的地方，但在其他时候，可能需要对更多的家庭和企业进行搬迁。在后一种情况下，决定是否搬迁需要各种社区利益攸关方的互动，所有这些都往往是在充满许多不确定性的背景下进行的。遗憾的是，现有的研究很少关注社区层面的利益相关者如何在高度不确定性下做出搬迁决策，以及这些决策可能是如何相互关联的。要了解这种相互依存关系，需要使用比以前的搬迁研究中采用的更全面的方法。这种做法必须承认利益攸关方在作出搬迁决定方面的个人能力，以及影响这些能力的更广泛的背景。这项研究推进了美国国家科学基金会的使命，即通过产生影响高度不确定和紧急制度环境中家庭和企业社区搬迁决策的因素的科学知识，促进科学进步。通过关注服务不足的社区，这项研究还推进了NSF的使命，即促进这些社区的国民健康、繁荣和福利，这些社区往往处于飓风、洪水、地震和海平面上升等快速和缓慢灾难事件的前线。这项研究的具体目的是在高度不确定和紧急的制度环境中考察以下问题：(1)家庭和企业用于做出搬迁决策的资源；(2)家庭和企业搬迁决策之间的相互依存关系；(3)家庭和企业搬迁决策对非营利组织或志愿者团体行动的依赖。这项为期三年的研究使用了嵌入式、多案例研究和混合方法研究设计，在波多黎各的两个农村、服务不足和高危社区(沿海的洛伊萨和山区的科梅里奥)及其在2017年伊尔玛和玛丽亚飓风后被指定搬迁的社区。这些社区不仅处于多重和同时、快速和缓慢发生的灾难事件的前线，而且还在应对高度的政治动荡和不确定和不断变化的机构。这项研究的年度数据收集方法包括：(I)对家庭和企业的随机抽样调查；(Ii)多利益相关者关键线人访谈；(Iii)与居民的PhotoVoice项目；以及(Iv)与居民的多利益相关者角色扮演游戏。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The aftermath of a disaster often results in the need for individual households and businesses to relocate to less hazardous locations but at other times movement can be necessary for larger numbers of both. In the latter case, deciding whether to move requires the interaction of a variety of community stakeholders, all to often in a context fraught with many uncertainties. Unfortunately, existing research has paid little attention to how community-level stakeholders make relocation decisions under high uncertainty and how these decisions may be interrelated. Understanding such interdependencies requires using a more holistic approach than those adopted in prior relocation studies. Such an approach must acknowledge both the individual capacity of stakeholders in making relocation decisions and the broader contexts which influence these capacities. This study advances the NSF’s mission to promote the progress of science by generating scientific knowledge of the factors that affect community relocation decisions of households and businesses in highly uncertain and emergent institutional environments. By focusing on underserved communities, this study also advances NSF’s mission to promote national health, prosperity, and welfare of these communities which are often at the frontline of fast and slow-onset disaster events such as, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and sea level rise. The study’s specific aims are to examine the following in highly uncertain and emergent institutional environments: (1) resources households and businesses use to make relocation decisions; (2) the inter-dependencies between household and business relocation decisions; and (3) the dependence of household and business relocation decisions upon the actions of nonprofits or volunteer groups. This three-year study uses an embedded, multi-case study and mixed-method research design in two rural, under-served and at-risk communities in Puerto Rico (coastal Loíza and mountainous Comerío) and their neighborhoods designated for relocation after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. These communities are not only at the frontline of multiple and concurrent, fast and slow-onset disaster events but also are dealing with high levels of political unrest and uncertain and constantly changing institutions. The study’s annual data collection methods include: (i) random sample surveys of households and businesses; (ii) multi-stakeholder key informant interviews; (iii) PhotoVoice project with residents; and (iv) multi-stakeholder Role Playing Games with residents.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.