UNS: Integrated assessments of urbanization impacts on building energy use for urban energy sustainability

当前的城市化速度，加上预计未来能源需求的增长，使得对基于科学的城市能源可持续性信息和知识的需求具有挑战性和前景。本项目侧重于系统分析复合型城市化对建筑能耗的影响。该项目的总体目标是提高对城市化在影响建筑能源使用方面的作用的认识，以便制定区域特定战略，以缓解日益增长的能源需求。通过整合地理空间和综合评估模型的能力来应对城市能源可持续性的挑战，本研究具有改善大规模城市化和建筑能源使用相关实践的潜力，并将为下一代可持续城市系统科学做出贡献。实现总体目标的四个具体任务：(1)从人口再分配（区域层面）、城市密度变化（城市层面）和城市热岛增长（地方层面）三个层面考察和预测城市化对建筑能源使用的耦合影响；(2)构建具有国际先进水平的建筑能源模型框架，系统量化和评价城市化对建筑能源使用的复合影响；(3)探讨城市化和其他关键因素（如技术改进）在缓解城市能源需求增长中的作用和意义，为城市能源可持续发展的区域战略提供依据；(4)在城市可持续发展方面开设一门新的创新课程，让学生（尤其是代表性不足的学生）接触环境科学，以提高他们从事科学事业的兴趣，并吸引公众和相关利益相关者广泛传播研究结果。本项目旨在通过回答以下基本问题，加深对复合城市化对建筑能源使用影响的认识和理解：(1)考虑三个层面的耦合效应，城市化对建筑能源使用的影响程度如何？(2)与其他因素（如技术改进）相比，城市化在影响建筑能源使用方面的相对作用是什么？(3)城市化在不同空间/区域的影响和作用如何变化？建模框架将作为一个原型，将通常独立的方法/模型与情景分析相结合，以探索城市化影响的复杂问题。它将有助于创造一种手段来缓解日益增长的能源需求，并为政策和实际决策提供信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The current rate of urbanization, coupled with anticipated growing energy demand in the future, makes the need for science-based information and knowledge on urban energy sustainability challenging and promising. This project focuses on a systematic analysis of compound urbanization impacts on building energy use. The overall goal of this project is to improve understanding of the role of urbanization in influencing building energy use for developing region-specific strategies to mitigate growing energy demand. By integrating capabilities of geospatial and integrated assessment modeling to address challenges of urban energy sustainability, this research has the potential to improve the practices relevant to urbanization and building energy use at the large scale and will contribute to the next generation of sustainable urban systems science.Four specific tasks to achieve the overall goal: (1) to examine and project coupled impacts of urbanization on building energy use at three levels, including population redistribution (regional level), urban density change (city level), and urban heat island growth (local level); (2) to develop a state-of-the- science building energy modeling framework that can systematically quantify and evaluate the compound impact of urbanization on building energy use; (3) to investigate the role and implication of urbanization and other key factors (e.g., technology improvement) in mitigating growing urban energy demand for region-specific strategies of urban energy sustainability; and (4) to develop a new innovative course in urban sustainability, to expose students (especially underrepresented) to environmental science with the aim of enhancing their interests in pursuing a career in science, and to engage general public and relevant stakeholders for a broad dissemination of findings. This project aims to advance knowledge and understanding of compound urbanization impacts on building energy use by answering fundamental questions: (1) to what extent can urbanization influence building energy use with the consideration of coupled effects at three levels? (2) what will be the relative role of urbanization in influencing building energy use compared to other factors (e.g., technology improvement)? and (3) how will the influence and role of urbanization vary over space/region? The modeling framework will serve as a prototype in coupling often independent methods/models together with scenario analyses to explore complex problems of urbanization impacts. It will help to create a means to mitigate growing energy demand and to inform policy and practical decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.