Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Not-So-Inexhaustible Sea: Fisheries Science and Management 1863-present

鱼类是10亿人的主要蛋白质来源，但这一关键的食物供应受到过度捕捞的威胁。尽管大量科学和政策文献认为，可持续渔业是可以通过科学模型和管理框架实现的，但全球渔业的健康状况继续下降。这表明，我们试图分析、理解和管理捕鱼的方式可能存在根本性的错误。该项目研究了过度捕捞危机中一个被忽视但关键的因素：认为渔业是取之不尽的，这意味着它们可以以当代的速度无限期地年复一年地捕捞，而不会有崩溃的风险。由此产生的论文将：1)记录取之不尽用之不竭的历史，展示几个世纪以来如何以不同形式抵制鱼类种群减少的想法；2)研究是什么推动了对取之不尽用之不竭的海洋的信念；以及3)建议如何减轻其影响，以便制定更有效和更有弹性的渔业管理战略。这个项目在150年的历史中发现了令人惊讶的连续性。来自档案研究方法的初步结果表明，随着时间的推移，取之不尽的是不同的形式，但原因相似，包括1)对量化科学和自由市场过于自信，无法简化和解决复杂的环境和社会问题；2)未能解释观察到的鱼类种群的波动，这可能使可预测和可持续的年度捕获量从长期来看非常困难；3)现有模型、重点领域和管理战略产生的惯性，排除了新的思维方式。该项目借鉴了历史学家托马斯·休斯(Thomas Hughes)关于技术动量的概念，认为取之不尽、用之不竭的观点在理论上具有足够的推动力，事实证明，即使面对大量反驳的经验证据，也几乎不可能将其排除在外。通过出版物、专栏文章、论坛、圆桌讨论和保存在NOAA之声档案中的口述历史，该项目将促使科学家、政策制定者、环境保护主义者和渔业工作者重新思考渔业科学，以适应枯竭-并且日益枯竭的-海的现实。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Fish provide the primary source of protein for a billion people, but that crucial food supply is threatened by overfishing. Despite a vast scientific and policy literature arguing that sustainable fisheries are achievable through scientific models and management frameworks, the health of global fisheries continues to decline. This suggests that there may be something fundamentally wrong with the way we have tried to analyze, understand, and manage fishing. This project examines an overlooked but critical factor in the overfishing crisis: the false belief that fisheries are inexhaustible, meaning they can be harvested at contemporary rates indefinitely, year after year, without risk of collapse. The resulting dissertation will: 1) document the history of inexhaustibility and show how resistance to the idea of dwindling fish stocks has taken different forms over the centuries; 2) examine what propels belief in inexhaustible seas; and 3) suggest how its influence might be mitigated to allow for the development of more effective and resilient fisheries management strategies. This project finds surprising continuities over a hundred and fifty years of history. Preliminary results from archival research methods show that inexhaustibility appears in diverse forms over time but for similar reasons, including 1) overconfidence in quantitative science and free markets to simplify and solve complex environmental and social problems; 2) failure to account for observed fluctuations in fish populations that may make predictable and sustainable annual catches very difficult in the long term; and 3) an inertia generated by existing models, areas of focus, and management strategies that precludes new ways of thinking. Drawing on historian Thomas Hughes’ notion of technological momentum, this project suggests that the idea of inexhaustibility has had sufficient intellectual momentum that it has proved nearly impossible to dislodge, even in the face of volumes of refuting empirical evidence. Through publications, op-eds, forums, round-table discussions, and oral histories deposited in the NOAA Voices archive, this project will engage scientists, policy-makers, environmentalists, and workers in the fishing industry in rethinking fisheries science to adapt to the reality of an exhaustible—and increasingly exhausted—sea.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.