CAREER: Decision Theoretic Life Cycle Assessment

这个职业项目旨在创建一个决策理论生命周期评估(DT-LCA)框架，以关键地提高LCA的预测能力和支持决策的有用性。特别是，该项目将使用DT-LCA来解决与饮用水应急规划和响应有关的健康、经济和环境方面的问题。其目标是使LCA能够解决有关各种人类决策因素如何影响可持续发展结果以及可持续发展结果如何影响决策的重要问题。DT-LCA方法将使用基于游戏的身临其境的方法来让利益相关者参与到简化但现实的决策场景中。与确定性的LCA方法不同，DT-LCA基于利益相关者在博弈过程中做出的实际决策，以迭代、动态的方式模拟可持续发展结果。它将社会实验、计算机建模、教育和推广整合到一个框架中。研究试图通过严肃的博弈将生命周期评价与利益相关者决策紧密结合起来，从而增强生命周期评价的实施方式。决策因素，包括风险态度，跨组织网络，以及获得LCA结果将被引入游戏的实验设计，以调查他们对可持续发展结果的影响。收集参与游戏前后的利益相关者概念图，研究DT-LCA对学习的影响。这些影响的特征将是通过统计和机器学习技术、网络分析和文本挖掘分析从严肃游戏中获得的定量和定性数据。该项目旨在1)人类决策因素，包括风险态度和组织间网络对可持续发展成果的影响；2)关于可持续发展成果的知识对决策的影响；以及3)紧密结合的决策-评估框架对利益攸关方学习以及提高饮用水应急规划和应对做法的可持续性的有效性。该项目还将导致开发1)DT-LCA框架，以实现评估和决策的紧密耦合；2)用于参与学习饮用水应急规划和响应的新的严肃游戏；3)安全规划模型和应急响应模型，其中包含各种决策情景和相关的系统响应；4)将与故障风险相关的影响纳入可持续发展措施的方法；以及5)可整合到本科生和研究生课程并供自学人员使用的教学资料包。该项目将吸引来自新罕布夏州的至少50名利益相关者，以及更多的水务行业专业人士和公众，通过研讨会和众包。将开发一个教材包，包括该项目的游戏和模拟工具，该教材包将被整合到新汉普郡大学(UNH)的三门本科生和研究生课程中。这是为了帮助学生获得新的知识和技能，这些知识和技能对于管理可持续性挑战背后的复杂性至关重要。该项目的关键成果将通过UNH的工程教师研究经验(RETE)计划、现有的科学教育工作者网络(NHISE)、会议研讨会和演讲、网络研讨会、社交媒体帖子和期刊出版物进一步传播给更广泛的社区。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This CAREER project aims to create a decision theoretic life cycle assessment (DT-LCA) framework to critically advance LCA’s predictive power and usefulness in support of decision-making. In particular, the project will use DT-LCA to address health, economic, and environmental aspects related to drinking water emergency planning and response. The goal is to enable LCA to address important questions regarding how various human decision factors influence sustainability outcomes, and in turn, how sustainability outcomes influence decision-making. The DT-LCA approach will use an immersive game-based approach to engage stakeholders in simplified but realistic decision scenarios. Unlike the deterministic LCA approach, DT-LCA simulates sustainability outcomes in an iterative, dynamic manner based upon actual decisions made by stakeholders during the game. It combines social experimenting, computer modeling, education, and outreach into one integrated framework.The research seeks to enhance the way LCA is conducted by tightly coupling it with stakeholder decision- making through serious gaming. Decision factors including risk attitudes, interorganizational networks, and access to LCA results will be introduced into the game’s experimental design to investigate their influences on sustainability outcomes. Stakeholder concept maps before and after game participation will be collected to study the influence of the DT-LCA on learning. These influences will be characterized by analyzing the quantitative and qualitative data obtained from the serious game through statistical and machine learning techniques, network analysis, and text mining. This project aims to generate new knowledge in 1) the influences of human decision factors including risk attitudes and interorganizational networks on sustainability outcomes; 2) the influences of knowledge about sustainability outcomes on decision-making; and, 3) the effectiveness of a tightly coupled decision-assessment framework on stakeholder learning as well as on improving the sustainability of drinking water emergency planning and response practices. This project will also result in the development of 1) a DT-LCA framework that allows for the tight coupling of assessment and decision-making; 2) a novel serious game for engaged learning about drinking water emergency planning and response; 3) a safety planning model and an emergency response model that incorporate various decision scenarios and the associated system responses; 4) a method to integrate impacts related to failure risks into sustainability measures; and, 5) a teaching packet that can be integrated into undergraduate and graduate level courses and be used by self-learners. This project will engage at least 50 stakeholders from New Hampshire along with additional water industry professionals and the general public through workshops and crowdsourcing. A teaching packet will be developed to encompass the game and the simulation tool from this project, and the teaching packet will be integrated into three undergraduate and graduate courses at University of New Hampshire (UNH). This is targeted to help students obtain new knowledge and skillsets that are critical to manage the complexity behind sustainability challenges. Key outcomes from the project will be further disseminated to a broader community through the UNH’s Research Experience for Teachers of Engineering (RETE) program, an existing science educator network (NHISE), conference workshops and presentations, webinars, social media posts, and journal publications.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.