Resilience, Reliability, and Externalities of Integrated Centralized and Distributed Water and Energy Systems: The Integrated Water-Energy Dynamic (iWED) Model

1706143 (Mo)。该项目旨在确定集中和分布式水和能源供应方案之间的权衡和协同作用，并随着人口、气候、技术和政策的变化，加强对水-能源相互依赖和动态的理解。为了实现这一目标，将基于系统动力学（SD）理论耦合的生命周期评估、生命周期成本评估、结构路径分析和基于过程的气候和水文模型，创建一个新的综合水能动力学（iWED）建模框架。将首先在区域尺度上开发一个通用的iWED模型和决策框架。然后将通过两个对比案例研究进行测试：佛罗里达州坦帕湾地区和马萨诸塞州大波士顿地区。在这个项目中，一个区域的所有水和能源将首先被确定为关键资源组成部分，并模拟为储量（与时间有关的可利用资源累积水平）。将确定每种股票的流入和流出情况。然后将利用现有的气候和水文模型以及质量平衡方程，开发一个将水源、基础设施能力和需求联系起来的基线水系统模型。还将建立一个类似的能源系统模型。然后，利用生命周期评估的结果并辅以结构路径分析，将水系统模型与能源系统模型联系起来。当考虑到不同的人口和规模缩小的气候变化情景，将不同类型和百分比的分布式水和能源系统集成到现有网络中时，将检查水和能量平衡、相互作用和恢复力的变化。根据不同分散化情景下的水和能源脆弱性和复原力结果，将开发一个生命周期成本模型，以评估集中供应、与分布式基础设施相关的资本和维护成本的潜在节约，以及可能支持分布式水和能源系统的社会正义和保护目标的潜在激励/抑制政策。这项工作的目标是在1)整个生命周期的区域尺度动态水能关系量化方面产生新的知识；2)分散尺度对水和能源可得性和弹性的影响；3)不同水能供给方案下不同动态局地环境对水能关系的影响；4)优化水、能源供给特征、促进社会公平的政策和管理策略的可行性。该项目还将导致1)一个新的综合水、能源、资金可用性和平衡模型- iWED的发展，该模型可以推广到任何关注的区域；2)不同生命周期水和能源系统的生命周期成本清单；3)动态政策和情景分析，为水和能源综合管理提供信息，并支持未来水和能源范式转变的决策。设想的iWED模型可以很容易地扩展到支持和推进其他相关研究领域的发展，例如理解其他关键资源之间的相互作用（例如，食物-水-能源关系），智能和净零社区，城市代谢和工业共生。该项目还将开发一个新的开源学习模块，可集成到本科和研究生水平的系统分析课程中，以及一个教育角色扮演游戏，可用于促进系统思考和提高对水-能源关系的理解。

1706143 (Mo). This project aims to identify trade-offs and synergies among centralized and distributed water and energy supply schemes and enhance understanding of water-energy interdependence and dynamics as demographics, climate, technologies, and policies change. To achieve this goal, a novel, integrated Water-Energy Dynamic (iWED) modeling framework will be created based on system dynamics (SD) theory coupling results from life cycle assessment, life cycle cost assessment, structural path analysis, and process-based climate and hydrologic models. A generic iWED model and decision making framework will first be developed on the regional scale. It will then be tested through two contrasting case studies: the Tampa Bay, FL region and the Great Boston area, MA region. In this project, all water and energy sources of a region will first be identified as critical resource components and simulated as stocks (time dependent cumulative levels of source availability). The inflows and outflows of each stock will be identified. A baseline water systems model will then be developed linking water sources, infrastructure capacity, and demand using existing climate and hydrologic models and mass balance equations. A similar energy systems model will also be established. The water systems model will then be linked with the energy systems model using outcomes of life cycle assessments, supplemented by structural path analysis. Changes in water and energy balance, interactions, and resilience will be examined when varied types and percentages of distributed water and energy systems are integrated into the existing network considering varied population and downscaled climate change scenarios. Based on the water and energy vulnerability and resilience results under varied decentralization scenarios, a life cycle cost model will be developed to evaluate the potential savings from centralized supply, capital and maintenance costs associated with distributed infrastructure, and potential incentive/disincentive policies that could support social justice and conservation goals with distributed water and energy systems. This work is target to generate new knowledge in 1) regional scale dynamic water-energy nexus quantifications over their entire life cycles; 2) the influences of the decentralization scale on water and energy availability and resiliency; 3) the influences of different and dynamic local contexts on the water-energy nexus under different water and energy supply schemes; and 4) the feasibility of policy and management strategies that simultaneously optimize characteristics of water and energy supply as well as promote social justice. This project will also result in the development of 1) a new integrated water, energy, fund availability and balance model - iWED, which can be generalized to any region of concern, 2) a life cycle cost inventory of different life cycle water and energy systems, and 3) dynamic policy and scenario analyses to inform integrated water and energy management and support decision making of future water and energy paradigm shift. The envisioned iWED model could easily be extended to support and advance the development of other pertinent research fields such as understanding the interactions among other critical resources (e.g., the food-water-energy nexus), smart and net-zero communities, urban metabolism, and industrial symbiosis. This project will also result in development of a new open-sourced learning module, which can be integrated into undergraduate and graduate level systems analysis courses, and an educational role-play game that can be used to promote systems thinking and improve understanding of the water-energy nexus.