Resilience, Reliability, and Externalities of Integrated Centralized and Distributed Water and Energy Systems: The Integrated Water-Energy Dynamic (iWED) Model

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1706143 (Mo). This project aims to identify trade-offs and synergies among centralized and distributed water and energy supply schemes and enhance understanding of water-energy interdependence and dynamics as demographics, climate, technologies, and policies change. To achieve this goal, a novel, integrated Water-Energy Dynamic (iWED) modeling framework will be created based on system dynamics (SD) theory coupling results from life cycle assessment, life cycle cost assessment, structural path analysis, and process-based climate and hydrologic models. A generic iWED model and decision making framework will first be developed on the regional scale. It will then be tested through two contrasting case studies: the Tampa Bay, FL region and the Great Boston area, MA region. In this project, all water and energy sources of a region will first be identified as critical resource components and simulated as stocks (time dependent cumulative levels of source availability). The inflows and outflows of each stock will be identified. A baseline water systems model will then be developed linking water sources, infrastructure capacity, and demand using existing climate and hydrologic models and mass balance equations. A similar energy systems model will also be established. The water systems model will then be linked with the energy systems model using outcomes of life cycle assessments, supplemented by structural path analysis. Changes in water and energy balance, interactions, and resilience will be examined when varied types and percentages of distributed water and energy systems are integrated into the existing network considering varied population and downscaled climate change scenarios. Based on the water and energy vulnerability and resilience results under varied decentralization scenarios, a life cycle cost model will be developed to evaluate the potential savings from centralized supply, capital and maintenance costs associated with distributed infrastructure, and potential incentive/disincentive policies that could support social justice and conservation goals with distributed water and energy systems. This work is target to generate new knowledge in 1) regional scale dynamic water-energy nexus quantifications over their entire life cycles; 2) the influences of the decentralization scale on water and energy availability and resiliency; 3) the influences of different and dynamic local contexts on the water-energy nexus under different water and energy supply schemes; and 4) the feasibility of policy and management strategies that simultaneously optimize characteristics of water and energy supply as well as promote social justice. This project will also result in the development of 1) a new integrated water, energy, fund availability and balance model - iWED, which can be generalized to any region of concern, 2) a life cycle cost inventory of different life cycle water and energy systems, and 3) dynamic policy and scenario analyses to inform integrated water and energy management and support decision making of future water and energy paradigm shift. The envisioned iWED model could easily be extended to support and advance the development of other pertinent research fields such as understanding the interactions among other critical resources (e.g., the food-water-energy nexus), smart and net-zero communities, urban metabolism, and industrial symbiosis. This project will also result in development of a new open-sourced learning module, which can be integrated into undergraduate and graduate level systems analysis courses, and an educational role-play game that can be used to promote systems thinking and improve understanding of the water-energy nexus.