The Effects of Panel Conditioning on Data Quality

这一研究项目将促进对面板条件作用机制的科学理解，以及面板条件作用对数据质量的影响。小组调节是指参与一波多波的小组调查所带来的报告、态度和行为的变化。这些变化在专家小组随后几次会议的答复中得以实现，并在变化衡量标准中引入了误差。由于面板调查主要是为了测量变化而设计的，面板调节是测量误差的重要来源。以前的研究主要是基于观察数据，不能清楚地确定面板条件作用的大小或来源。该项目将通过实施一系列实验研究来解决这一限制，以阐明面板条件化效应的潜在机制。该项目将对社会科学家产生广泛的影响，他们依赖的数据来自小组调查，如收入动态小组调查，美国全国选举研究，以及由联邦统计系统管理的小组调查，如当前人口调查和国家犯罪受害者调查。该项目的结果将为减少面板调节影响和/或对其进行统计调整的努力提供参考。该项目将通过研究生课程、短期课程、出版物和会议报告中提供的课程来促进教学、培训和学习。该项目将进行一系列实验，以解决许多关于面板调节的公开问题。实验结果将提高对面板条件化的原因的理解，并为这种影响应该在何时发生提供洞察力。将进行六个实验，每个实验都检查关于一种条件类型的特定假设，并着眼于数据质量。实验1将考察动机错误报告或问题理解的改善是否是在一轮调查中减少受害报告的机制。实验2将比较两种组织筛选问题的形式(分组和交错)，考察它们在减少因减轻负担的动机而导致的误报方面的有效性。实验3将调查态度是否会随着时间的推移变得更加一致，以及什么认知机制可以解释一致性的变化。实验4将考察重复提问如何影响潜在敏感话题的报告，以及报告中观察到的任何变化背后的机制。实验5将探索不同类型的问题如何影响投票行为和关于投票的报告，以及询问受访者是否打算投票是否会增加投票的可能性。实验6将通过反复访谈来检验关于知识和个性的报道是否存在实践效应。这一奖项由彩信计划和一个联邦统计机构联盟支持。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will advance scientific understanding of the mechanisms responsible for panel conditioning as well as the effects of panel conditioning on data quality. Panel conditioning refers to changes in reporting, attitudes, and behavior brought about by participating in a wave of a multi-wave panel survey. These changes are realized in responses at subsequent waves of the panel and introduce error in measures of change. Since panel surveys are primarily designed to measure change, panel conditioning is an important source of measurement error. Prior research largely has been based on observational data that could not clearly identify either the magnitude or the sources of panel conditioning. This project will address this limitation by administering a series of experimental studies to shed light on mechanisms underlying panel conditioning effects. The project will have broad impacts for social scientists who rely on data from panel surveys such as the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, the American National Election Studies, and panel surveys administered by the Federal statistical system such as the Current Population Survey and the National Crime Victimization Survey. Results from this project will inform efforts to reduce panel conditioning effects and/or to adjust for them statistically. The project will promote teaching, training, and learning through courses offered in graduate programs, short courses, publications, and conference presentations.This project will conduct a series of experiments to address many of the open questions about panel conditioning. The experimental results will improve understanding about the causes of panel conditioning and provide insights as to when such effects should be expected to occur. Six experiments will be conducted, each examining a specific hypothesis about one type of conditioning with an eye to data quality. Experiment 1 will examine whether motivated misreporting or improved question understanding is the mechanism underlying decreasing reports of victimization over rounds of a survey. Experiment 2 will compare two formats (grouped versus interleafed) for organizing filter questions, examining how effective they are for reducing misreporting driven by a motivation to reduce burden. Experiment 3 will investigate whether attitudes become more consistent over time and what cognitive mechanisms might explain changes in consistency. Experiment 4 will examine how repeated questioning affect reports on potentially sensitive topics and what mechanisms underlie any observed changes in reporting. Experiment 5 will explore how different types of questions affect voting behavior and reports about voting, and whether asking respondents if they intend to vote increases the likelihood of voting. Experiment 6 will examine whether there are practice effects on reports about knowledge and personality with repeated interviews. This award is supported by the MMS Program and a consortium of Federal statistical agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.