Collaborative Research: P2C2--Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Precipitation throughout the Southeastern United States

该奖项全部或部分由《2021年美国救援计划法案》（公法117-2）资助。研究小组的目标是通过在过去大约300年的时间里重建美国东南部的区域TCP（热带低气压、热带风暴和飓风降水），产生长期的、每年解决的、复制良好的晚木年轮宽度数据。该地区较长的TCP记录（即超出仪器周期的记录）可以提供以下方面的新信息：(1)过去和当前TCP变率的时空特征；(2)仪器前TCP的全范围和振幅；(3)近期产生TCP的大型风暴，如飓风哈维和弗洛伦斯的历史先例；(4)海洋和大气强迫机制对百年尺度TCP变率的影响以及TCP变化对这些强迫机制的敏感性。登陆的热带气旋（TCs；热带低气压、热带风暴和飓风）由于强风、风暴潮和暴雨引起的洪水影响沿海和内陆社区。虽然许多研究工作都集中在研究美国东南部TC强度和登陆频率的大小和时空变异性上，但该地区由TC引起的降雨变异性仍未得到充分研究。本项目旨在通过对现有仪器气候记录的分析和多世纪年轮代用记录的开发与应用，为东南地区的TCP提供新的信息。本研究的总体目标是利用长叶松（Pinus palustris）在整个物种范围内的老生长、老二次生长和残余树桩的组合，提供整个东南部的TCP古气候重建。研究小组将测试以下假设：(1)TCP与长叶松晚木生长之间的密切关系将允许发展一个强大的多世纪记录，记录美国东南部TCP的时空大小和变异性；(2)大尺度的海洋-大气条件将相互作用，并对东南地区接收到的TCP的时间和数量表现出实质性的控制。潜在的更广泛的影响包括加深对美国东南部热带天气系统降水的了解，让本科生和高中生(其中许多人来自传统上在STEM中代表性不足的群体（特殊需求学生、美国原住民学生、第一代大学生）参与研究和推广工作，以及向美国林务局转移科学和技术。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The research team aims to produce long-term annually resolved well-replicated latewood tree-ring width data by generating regional TCP (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes precipitation) reconstructions across the Southeast United States spanning the past approximately 300 years. Longer TCP records (i.e., records that extend beyond the instrumental period) for the region could provide new information regarding: (1) past and current spatiotemporal characteristics of TCP variability; (2) the full range and amplitude of pre-instrumental TCP; (3) the historical precedence of recent large TCP producing storms such as Hurricane Harvey and Florence and, (4) the influence of oceanic and atmospheric forcing mechanisms on centennial-scale TCP variability and the sensitivity of TCP changes to these forcing mechanisms.Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs; tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) impact coastal and inland communities due to strong winds, storm surges, and flooding caused by heavy rainfall. While much research effort has focused on studying the magnitude and spatiotemporal variability of TC strength and landfall frequency across the southeastern U.S., the variability of rainfall derived from TCs for this region remains understudied. This project seeks to provide new information on TCP in the Southeast through analysis of existing instrumental climate records and the development and application of multi-century tree-ring proxy records. The overall objective for the research is to provide a paleoclimate reconstruction of TCP throughout the Southeast using a combination of old growth, older second-growth, and remnant stumps of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) throughout the range of the species. The research team will test the hypotheses that: (1) the strong relationship between TCP and latewood growth of longleaf pine will allow for the development of a robust multi-century record that documents the spatiotemporal magnitude and variability of TCP within the Southeast U.S.; and (2) large-scale oceanic–atmospheric conditions will interact and exhibit substantive control over the timing and volume of TCP received in the Southeast.The potential Broader Impacts include greater understanding of precipitation from tropical weather systems in the Southeastern United States, engaging undergraduate and high school students, many of whom are from groups traditionally underrepresented in STEM (special needs students, native American students, first generation college students) in the research and outreach efforts, and science and technology transfer to the US Forest Service.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.