Collaborative Research: GRate – Integrating data and modeling to quantify rates of Greenland Ice Sheet change, Holocene to future

格陵兰冰盖近年来经历了毁灭性的融化。最近的科学报告强调了格陵兰冰盖对北极气候变化的脆弱性，并描绘了海平面上升的可怕影响。为了让社会掌握海平面上升的最佳预测以供规划，科学家需要提高模拟--或建模--冰盖对气候变化的反应的能力。在这个项目中，来自冰盖研究不同分支的科学家将共同努力改进冰盖建模。研究人员将利用最新的科学进展来模拟整个格陵兰冰盖，以研究冰盖对海洋和大气变化的长期敏感性。研究小组致力于创造一个包容的环境，让所有团队成员都能学习和超越。该团队包含种族，性别和等级的多样性，并将培训六名早期职业学者，专门从地球科学中代表性不足的群体中招募，这是美国最不多样化的STEM领域之一。古气候重建/综合和冰川历史。为了提高在他们的第一个项目中开发的外展和教育计划的能力，该团队将建立在他们的“科学家是超级英雄”外展计划的基础上，并利用其他现有的外展框架，包括与格陵兰社区和高中生建立联系。（布朗克斯，纽约）和全国有色人种协进会春谷（纽约）分支，由我们专门的项目教育家和外展专家协调。减少冰盖模型预测的不确定性对于社会处理海平面危机至关重要。与冰盖不稳定性相关的不确定性来自于有限的观测，冰盖过程的不充分模型表示，以及对大气，海洋和冰盖之间复杂相互作用的有限理解。大气和海洋作用力如何随时间变化，以及在什么样的时间尺度上能够迫使快速变化，对于预测未来的冰量损失至关重要，但科学家们只观察了很短的时间（几十年）冰盖变化。PI建议仔细检查从全新世（12，000年前）开始到2100 CE的格陵兰冰盖变化，从而有可能评估大气和海洋强迫对未来格陵兰冰盖演变相关的十年至百年时间尺度的不同作用。PI将利用其已建立的多学科合作，将联合收割机冰盖建模、气候强迫和过去冰盖变化的重建结合起来。这将使团队能够预测未来冰盖的变化，这些变化是基于格陵兰冰盖在我们短暂的现代观测窗口之前发生的过去气候波动期间的行为。这项工作将产生持久的产品，以服务于社区的集体努力，以更好地了解冰盖的变化：1）一个最先进的冰盖模型，优化了长时间尺度的模拟，2）一个全新世到现代的一套大气和海洋状态估计优化，迫使冰盖模型，和3）过去的冰盖配置和古气候记录的数据库格式化为模型-该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced devastating melt in recent years. Recent scientific reports highlight how vulnerable the Greenland Ice Sheet is to Arctic climate change and draw a dire picture of the impact of sea-level rise. In order to equip society with the best forecasts of sea level rise for planning, scientists need to improve the ability to simulate – or model – the response of ice sheets to climate change. For this project, scientists from different branches of ice-sheet research will work together to improve ice sheet modelling. The researchers will leverage recent scientific advances to model the entire Greenland Ice Sheet in order to investigate long-term ice-sheet sensitivity to changes taking places in the ocean and atmosphere. The research group is committed to creating an inclusive environment where all team members can learn and excel. The team contains diversity in ethnicity, gender and rank, and will train six early career scholars, recruiting specifically from groups underrepresented in the geosciences, which is among the least diverse STEM fields in the U.S. Results will be made publicly available and will facilitate a broad range of future research about the Arctic system, including ice sheet modeling, model spin-up, paleoclimate reconstruction/synthesis and glacier history. To elevate the capacity of outreach and education programs developed during their first project, the team will build on their “Scientists are Superheroes” outreach program and leverage other, existing outreach frameworks, including making connections with Greenlandic communities and with high school student intern programs at their universities linked to The Young Women’s Leadership School (Bronx, NY) and the Spring Valley (NY) branch of the NAACP, coordinated by our dedicated project educator and outreach specialist. Reducing uncertainties in ice-sheet model predictions is crucial in society’s handling of the sea level crisis. Uncertainties related to ice-sheet instability arise from limited observations, inadequate model representation of ice-sheet processes, and limited understanding of the complex interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets. How atmospheric and oceanic forcing vary through time, and at what timescales each are capable of forcing rapid change, are critical for predicting future ice mass loss, but scientists have been observing ice sheet change for only a short period of time (decades). The PIs propose to scrutinize Greenland Ice Sheet change spanning from the beginning of the Holocene (12,000 years ago) to 2100 CE, making it possible to evaluate the varying roles of atmospheric and ocean forcing on decadal-to-centennial timescales relevant for the future Greenland Ice Sheet evolution. The PIs will utilize their established multi-disciplinary collaboration to combine ice sheet modelling, climate forcing and reconstructions of past ice-sheet change. This will position the team to make predictions of future ice sheet change that are grounded in Greenland Ice Sheet behavior during past climate swings that occurred prior to our brief window of modern observation. The work will lead to lasting products to serve the community's collective effort to better understand ice sheet change: 1) a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model optimized for simulations over long timescales, 2) a Holocene-through-modern set of atmospheric and ocean state estimates optimized for forcing an ice-sheet model, and 3) a database of past-ice sheet configurations and paleoclimate records formatted for model-data comparison.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.